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Betting On Comeback Victories

The world of professional sports is filled with stories of great comeback victories. Novak Djokovic's epic turnaround against Roger Federer in the 2011 US Open, the Cleveland Cavaliers Finals comeback in 2016 against the Warriors and, of course, the unforgettable Manchester United Champions League Final victory versus Bayern Munich in 1999.

As sports lovers, we can’t get enough of witnessing such comebacks. As sports bettors who are always trying to find value odds, however, it’s imperative to find any motivational changes or seemingly insignificant patterns that can turn a single match or an entire tournament on its head.

How To Come From Behind and Win a Bet in Tennis

BMB_Tennis_BallWe have witnessed a lot of impressive tennis comebacks in the past and, luckily enough, are still seeing some jaw-dropping results at Grand Slam tournaments. A significant number of punters are making a living by placing bets exclusively on comebacks, particularly when experienced players are trailing on sets or games in an individual set.

Wonder why this happens more in tennis than in other sports. Let’s take a look at the more prevalent reasons.

  • 1
    Inexperienced players usually tend to get a head start in the first games of the match. Usually, they manage to win a game or two, but they do so by throwing about a lot of energy. As time goes by, they will tire and lose composure, thus allowing more experienced players to come back and win the decisive last points.
  • 2
    Some players will become complacent upon breaking their opponent’s service, or even worse when they win on a tie-break. They’re usually way too satisfied with their win at the start of the next game or set, contrary to their now-motivated opponents.
  • 3
    There are players that have competed in hundreds of high-level matches, such as Tomas Berdych, that are notoriously affected by bad psychology and tend to "choke" during crucial moments. This can oftentimes be seen in their body language after losing a hard-fought point or when making too many unforced errors.

Right below, you can find several bookies for betting on comeback victories. We chose them by checking odds, payouts, and the number of markets.

How does this knowledge translate into winning in tennis betting

BMB_BankrollSo, do you want to know how to win money betting on tennis? Follow our underneath tips.

  1. You can bet against the underdog if he/she gets a head start in the first games, as the odds are valued.

  2. If an experienced favorite wins at a tie-break, his odds of winning the next set will drop significantly. There’s a lot of value if you back the underdog to win the next set or the entire match at this point. Even if you are not entirely sure the underdog will win the match, you can cash out your bet at any point and claim a profit.

  3. By studying the various tournament results, you could easily identify players who are vulnerable to comebacks when crossing swords with the same quality opponents. When they tend to take the lead, it’s valuable to bet against them.

Apart from reasons related to mentality, you should take a close look at women’s WTA matches. Statistically, service breaks occur way more often on women’s matches due to lower service velocity. Game breaks in female tennis matches are common, so a favorite suffering a break may not affect a set's outcome compared to men’s ties. This allows us to do the following.

  • 1
    Check the betting glossary and understand bet types and their meaning.
  • 2
    Predict a match winner.
  • 3
    Wait for the opposite player to break a game.
  • 4
    Back your chosen player to win the set.

Betting on comeback victories in basketball

BMB_Basketball_BallFrequent score changes and epic turnarounds are an integral part of basketball. This is predominantly true in the final quarter, as head coaches will throw their best players in the fray, as they are expected to carry their team through scoring crucial points. Obviously, bookmakers are well aware of this fact. This is why they rarely change their initial view about the favorite and underdog of a match, even if an upset might build up during the first minutes.

Once again, however, we must take a look at the stats. According to research that drew info from all NBA matches from 1993 to 2009 (around 20.000 matches), teams who enjoyed a four-point lead or higher at half time ended up winning over 70% of the time. On the contrary, whenever a team was trailing by three or fewer points at half time, they won the match on 54% of the occasions.

This percentage offers the following conclusions.

  • 1
    Most of the time, a half time winner will win the match.
  • 2
    If an outsider is leading by four or more at half time, they have a strong chance of winning.
  • 3
    A team that is trailing by three or fewer points during half time has a slightly higher chance of winning.

However, we strongly advise exercising caution when trying to make a pick based purely on numbers and stats and not on thorough analysis. It’s impossible to accurately predict a result by relying solely on past results.

Best Bookies for Betting On Comeback Victories

BMB_Best IconThere are several bookies that offer markets for turnaround wins in all sports. Our reviews will help you to get the most from your betting on comeback victories, enjoying the best promotions, the highest odds, and instant payouts when placing a bet online.

Football turnaround wins

BMB_Football BallGenerally speaking, team sports with low score outcomes (such as association football, ice hockey or water polo) tend to have lower comeback percentages compared to high-scoring ones. There’s a pretty obvious reason for this: It’s easier for the team ahead to hold the win by retreating into their own half and employing time-wasting tactics coupled with gruelling defence strategies. This fact, however, is what makes football comebacks truly exceptional, not only emotionally wise but in betting as well.

The usual odds for a home team comeback (2 HT-1FT) stand around 20.00 in matches between same-level teams, while the opposite set (1 HT-2 FT) can be even higher. Let’s take another look at numbers: Recently, Pinnacle analyzed 132 English Premier League matches, where the score stood at 2-1 during halftime.

Despite the common belief that the team who's trailing can easily grab a draw or even win the tie, the results showed that in 75% of the matches, whichever team was leading at HT ended up keeping their advantage.

Leaning on a blind strategy to predict comebacks at football matches can and most probably, will prove to be disastrous for your bankroll. So, you should pay attention to more profitable football betting techniques. The odds are tempting, though, so if you like to bet on comebacks, it’s better to watch a live game and pick only those matches where the underdog has earned an unmerited lead.

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