“Why are you chasing draws? Try to win the lottery instead”. A piece of advice like this is what you get when unbosoming your preference on draw results when it comes to betting. Draw is considered a result derived mostly by luck (good or bad, it depends on who you support) and not by intention, especially when all football leagues changed their point system to give three points to a win and only one to the draw.
That’s what most punters think. But it’s not true. Draw results can be detected with an efficient draw betting strategy and give a steady long term profit, if you’re disciplined enough and follow certain rules during your analysis.
The truth is that, apart from a few circumstances in certain leagues, the vast majority of teams will not start a match with the aim of only earning a draw, so sharing points is indeed the most unlikely result. That’s why the odds are usually the highest in a set of 1X2 odds, especially when there’s no real difference between two opponents.
But this doesn’t mean that you can’t find draw results, based on pure logic and helped by a bunch of statistics, news and experience. This article will eventually answer how you predict draws in football matches and help you organize your draw chasing bets.
How to predict draws in football matches
When chasing draws, don’t expect a 50% winning percentage. Not even 40%. Most draw betting strategies demand that you should pursue a profit at a winning percentage of around 30%. Even a two match acca can be profitable. Don’t push your luck though with fourolds and fivefolds, unless you are willing to lose that extra bit of money.
Important notice: This article is not about “convenient” draws that are common in a leagues’ closing fixtures. If you follow the Italian Serie B, for example, or the French Ligue 2, you’ve certainly bumped into some matches, where the draw is the favorite result. Personally speaking, I detest these kind of matches and I strongly suggest avoiding them.
How to bet on draws: Separating the odds sets
Just look at two different 1X2 odds sets: The one with a strong home favorite at 1,65-3,30-5,75 and the other most well-balanced at 2,60-3,30-2,80 odds. What do you notice? That the draw result has the same odds (3,30). According to what odds describe, the draw result has the same possibility to come true in both matches. Right? Wrong! This is the bizarre thing about the odds and one of the most common mistakes punters fall in when they chase draws.
Another glance at the odds sets will reveal a huge difference: At the first set (1,65-3,30-5,75) the draw result is the SECOND HIGHER outcome, but in the second set (2,60-3,30-2,80) it’s the HIGHEST. According to the bookies, the chances of a draw are higher when it has the middle value of the three and lower when it has the higher. The faster you realize that, the faster you can make out two different lists of possible draw results: The ones where the underdog value is higher (in many cases much higher) than the draw and the one where both teams winning odds are lower than the draw.
Best draw betting strategies
Bend on motivation: Most punters will just glance at the league table and pick the closest teams. Their way of thinking is simple: When two teams are close in the table, they’re similar in quality. And when they’re similar in quality, their chances of cancelling each other out are high. But, this is wrong. When there’s a small difference between them, they’re both motivated to win the match. Drawing the match, might even feel like having lost two points, not gaining one.
The key word for this draw betting strategy is “motivation”. Will any of the two teams be happy with a draw, regardless if they manage to actually earn one? A team trying to get hold of at least a point, will keep defending till the dying seconds. This makes for an ideal scenario when trying to find draws.
To detect that you need to step back in your detailed reading and look at the match in a different way. Forget the classic analysis to find the winner, based only on numbers and news. You have to get the whole picture.
Fewer goals, better chance: You’re better off looking for low-scoring teams when you wonder how to predict draws in football matches. Of course there have been goal-fiesta draws (2-2, 3-3 etc.), but a team missing their leading scorer, a key playmaker in the midfield or they face difficulties in scoring are more likely to draw in the long term.
Convenient draws BEFORE last fixture: Watch out for some “convenient” draws before the last fixtures of the league. In the last matchday any draw results that benefit both opponents are well known to bookies and are offered on extremely low odds.
However, if you study carefully each team’s last fixtures, you could focus on some matches that may seem competitive at first glance, but have a high probability of point sharing. Of course, the chances of an actual draw will be smaller, but the odds will be really worthy to try.
Stacked on draws: Consecutive draw results usually are not only a matter of luck. They show a specific team’s mentality or a coach’s way of thinking. Even today there are coaches who are happy to grab a point in an away match and focus only on winning their home ties. So, you should mark the teams that tend to make draw series or have drawn many matches during a certain period of time.
Unexpectedly, there are some punters using a draw betting strategy based on the exact opposite scenario: They try to find teams with less number of draws in a league and bet on them. Their way of thinking is simple: They couldn’t end a whole league season with a small number of draws. But, this is a fair strategy when it comes to lottery games, with number delays, not at football.
Past results: Most punters don’t give a dime about past results of teams, but when it comes to draws they’re considered more important than other forms of analysis. There are a lot of pairs with consecutive draw results or a high percentage of draws in their matches and that is not by accident. Usually there’s a good reason: Probably a local tie, where both teams prefer not to lose than win, or an underdog playing at home, where the favorite finds it difficult to win. In any case, look at their past results before placing bet on a draw. At second (or third, fourth) round matches you’re strongly advised to look at the result of the previous round(s).
The progressive draw betting strategy: A trap
The so-called “progressive draw betting strategy” is considered as one of the most popular and effective, advertised by many expert websites. However, it is one of the most dangerous, as you really risk losing a lot of money by following it.
The strategy is simple: You pick a team you think will draw many of their matches during the season and bet on a draw at every match they have, not excluding a single one. The strategy is popular during international competitions too, there you bet on draws at consecutive matches. Usually, in the first round there’s a small time gap between two matches. In case of a loss, you raise your set base stakes, so that if you win the former loss is redeemed and you can get a steady profit.
This is a variant of the famous Martingale draw betting strategy, but with a huge difference. As in Martingale you need to raise the bet by 100% when you lose, in this strategy you only have to raise by 50%, as the odds you get for a draw are usually over 3.00 (Martingale was initially used for red/black bets on roulette, where you double your money in case of a win). So, you can afford to lose many more times when chasing draws.
An example: You bet €100 on a 3.00 odds draw. When you lose, your second bet (again a draw on minimum 3.00 odds) should be €150 (not €200, as in Martingale). In case of a loss, you have to bet €225 (€150+ €75) to your third bet to gain profit. If you win, you get a net profit of €200, as if you have won your first bet.
This strategy is attractive, as you bet fewer money than in Martingale. Starting with €100, If you lose five consecutive times, you’ll need to bet €759,37 in your sixth bet. Following the Martingale strategy, you’d have to stake €3.200 in your sixth bet. That’s a huge difference. To be more clear, here’s a table containing progressive profit amounts compared to Martingale’s.
|4th||€ 337,5 (€225+€112,5)||€812,5||€800||€1.500|
|5th||€ 506,25 (€337,5+€168,75)||€1.318,75||€1.600||€3.100|
|6th||€ 759,37 (506,25+€253,12)||€2.078,12||€3.200||€6.300|
Whoever is fascinated by this strategy forgets that draw is not a simple bet to win, you have, roughly speaking, a 30% possibility of winning. What happens if you get a eight-match series without a draw, which is nothing but rare? Do you have the funds and the guts to bet €1.708 on the ninth one?
Can you win from draw betting?
Keep in mind that in a well-balanced match the draw in most cases will have the highest odds. What does this reveal? Online bookmakers consider that the draw result has the less possibilities to be confirmed. This is completely opposite to most punter’s view, who consider the draw a reasonable outcome between two similar strength teams. Who’s right? The bookies, of course. If not, they would decrease the draw odds.
The most wise way to win from draw betting needs carefully monitor your predicting results for a long time, even 2-3 years or follow a draw-focused tipster with an archive of at least 5 years.. Once you’ ’ve come up with a steady winning percentage (let’s say 30%, which is acceptable), you should fluctuate your betting amount based on the current results.
Taking for granted that your (or your tipster’s) hit rate on draws is 30%, when you’ve won only once at last 15 draw bets and your flat stake is €100, I advise you increase the betting amount to €150. According to statistics, at your next 15 bets you could have 4-5 winning ones, to normalize with your long term winning percentage.
You can use this strategy by contraries as well: When you win 2-3 draw bets in a row, try to decrease the amount, you’ll probably have a losing series. After all, if you insist you can win from draw betting. All you need is to be patient.
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