The Fibonacci betting strategy in sports

The Fibonacci betting system is one of the most popular negative progression staking plans in sports wagering. Essentially, you increase every bet after a loss and reduce the stake after every win. The main target is to generate profits or conserve at least an even bankroll. It’s not the most straightforward staking plan because to build a Fibonacci betting strategy; you should first understand how the mathematical sequence Fn = F(n-1) + F(n-2) works. Using Fibonacci in sports betting can only be profitable if you follow the specific rules accurately.

Checking the odds value in all sports and markets is also critical as these prices will determine your payout when you will generate wins. Undoubtedly, it’s crucial to comprehend that Fibonacci isn’t offering you any arcane information about the outcome of your bet. It just tells you how much you should risk in order to keep a healthy bankroll. So, if you want to follow the Fibonacci betting system, remember that you must move on one step forward and two steps back. Now, we will break down the sequence to show you how to place the next bet stake each time you lose and how to step back each time you win.

How does the Fibonacci sequence work

Kelly Criterion equationThe mathematical sequence starts with 0 and 1. Each following number is the sum of the two previous preceding digits. There’s an equation that can help you find the numbers, especially the bigger ones, easier: Fn = F(n-1) + F(n-2), with F0=0, F1=1, F2=1 as standard values and n>2. The first 21 Fibonacci numbers are:

F0=0, F1=1, F2=1, F3=2, F4=3, F5=5, F6=8, F7=13, F8=21, F9=34, F10=55, F11=89, F12=144, F13=233, F14=377, F15=610, F16=987, F17=1597, F18=2584, F19=4181, F20=6765.

In order to comprehend the equation’s meaning, let’s find the F21. According to the formula above the 22nd Fibonacci number is 10946 [i.e., F21 = F(21-1) + F(21-2) = F20 + F19 = 6765 + 4181].

Fibonacci sequence

The Fibonacci betting strategy is primarily used for even money bets; that’s why it’s popular among roulette table players who bet on the outcome of red/black or even/odd. Our main advice is to start from the number 1 (i.e. €1 starting stake) and move up and down the sequence depending on your bets’ status (won or lost).

How can I build a Fibonacci betting strategy

Martingale variationsAdvanced betting systems like this one have specific moves that you should follow. The Fibonacci betting strategy suggests that you should make a one-digit move up the sequence if you lose. If you win, then you must move two numbers down. Like so:

Fibonacci moves

Let’s break down the staking plan with a football example. We set a €1 initial stake:

First bet: €1 stake and lose. Move up the sequence by one number.
Second bet: €1 stake and lose. Do precisely the same move.
Third bet: €2 stake and lose. Move up the sequence to the following Fibonacci number.
Fourth bet: €3 stake and lose. Make the same move.
Fifth bet: €5 stake and win. Now, you should move two Fibonacci numbers down the sequence.
Sixth bet: €2 stake and lose. Move up the sequence by one digit.
Seventh bet: €3 stake and win. Now, you should move two FN down to one.
Eighth bet: €1 stake and win. You are back to the initial position, so you must start again and bet €1 on your ninth bet.

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How to win with the Fibonacci system

Money bagThe main principle of using the Fibonacci system is to adjust your strategy on 2-way markets with theoretical 50:50 winning chances without counting the VIG. So, the Over/Under markets in football, basketball, ice hockey, etc., are ideal. You can also place bets on the DNB or moneylines on American sports like the NFL and NBA; the odds should be at least 2.00 (1/1). Here is a winning example with a €1 starting stake.

Winning the first and second bets, you already have a €4 return.

1st bet: €1 x 2.00 = €2 & 2nd bet: €1 x 2.00 = €2.

Remember that you start your bet series with €1 since it’s the first digit of the sequence. When you win the first bet, you should go back to staking €1 on the next wager. After two bets, you have a €2 cumulative profit.

If you lose the third bet, you should stake €1 on the fourth one. The bet is a loser again, so you must continue betting on the sequence with a €2 (i.e., fifth bet). You lost it; thus, you should stake €3 for the sixth wager, which is lousy again. Now, you are down €5 in total because you have lost the €2 profit (i.e., 3rd & 4th bet) and the following two wagers (i.e., 5th & 6th).

Following the Fibonacci strategy, you should steak the seventh bet at €5. You win it; therefore, you are now even. According to the mathematical sequence, you must start with a €1 stake again. The eighth bet is a winner, as well as the ninth. So, you have a €2 cumulative return again. The tenth bet is a loser; that means you have lost €1, and your bankroll is +€1.

Conclusion: You end up with a €1 pure profit after ten bets, even though you have lost half of your wagers (i.e., five wins from a total of ten).

Benefits & Drawbacks

Sports vs political bettingAs you understand from the analysis above, there are specific reasons why the Fibonacci betting system is considered one strategy that always works. It’s helpful to secure small, steady profits and a healthy bankroll situation for beginners and more experienced players. Let’s take a closer look at the advantages and disadvantages of the strategy.

The pros of the strategy

✔️ Safe system: The Fibonacci strategy it’s beneficial to players on a low budget. Τhe vast stakes are seldom necessary, so that system seems pretty safe. Moreover, you can put a leash on your emotions after a bad defeat which is critical to recovery.

✔️ Win Percentage: Using the Fibonacci, you can limit your possible losses, given that you might make a profit, even on winning percentages below 50%. It allows you to play with small bets, a critical factor. Maybe, it’s not the way to beat the game, but it’s essential for your bankroll protection.

✔️ Focus on the odds: Anyone can use the Fibonacci system without practically caring about the condition of the two teams, various statistics or absences that might affect the result of a game. The only thing that matters are the odds.

The cons of the strategy

One bet at a time: You have to wait for the bet to be settled before continuing, as you need to know the outcome and stake. Meanwhile, you may lose an exceptional wagering chance, but you can’t have more than one open bet following a Fibonacci betting system.

Danger of high losses: Discipline is of utmost importance for anyone building the Fibonacci betting strategy. If you get on the receiving end of a bad result and decide to limit your losses without using the mathematical sequence, then your chances of losing are even higher.

Βοokies limits: No one can guarantee whether the bookmaker will accept a big stake on a bet. If you check each bookie’s T&Cs, you will see that they reserve the right to deny a bet without stating a reason. Τhink that a specific market has a €100 limit; the closest digit in your Fibonacci sequence is 89. If you fail to win when staking €89, for instance, the damage in your bankroll will be significant.

Is it worth using the Fibonacci betting system?

Sticpay bookspyThese kinds of staking plans are helpful to indicate how much you should risk on a bet. However, they can’t tell you what to bet. To sum things up, the Fibonacci betting system is a conservative variation of the Martingale betting system for some bettors. In a nutshell, that’s not the naked truth. Τhere’s always a possibility of going on a losing streak, but your losses will be significantly less compared to the Martingale system. In the same regard, it’s nearly impossible to gain massive profits quickly following a Fibonacci betting strategy.

What you should remember, though, is that the mathematical sequence offers you an easy way of controlling your emotions, mainly after losing, which will undoubtedly be reflected on your bankroll. Following the Fibonacci betting system, you will likely achieve better results in your bankroll than simply stake sizing up your bets alone. On the flip side is a method generally applied for events with even odds, like a roulette table. So, it’s challenging to find the appropriate prices in sports betting for every bet placed, and based on the sequence, to secure a profit or recover losses.

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FAQ
Q: Where did the Fibonacci betting system originate?

The Fibonacci sequence was named after the Italian mathematician Leonardo of Pisa, commonly referred to as Fibonacci. His name is derived from the words Filius Bonacci, which means the son of Bonacci. He popularised the sequence through his most significant work, the “Liber Abaci” (Book of Calculation) in 1202, even though the sequence was based on the Hindu-Arabic numeral system.

Q: Do you need a big bankroll to follow the Fibonacci system?

In most cases, a big balance can help bettors to recover from losing streaks and secure returns in the long term. Fibonacci doesn’t need a big bankroll, like Martingale, except if a bettor tends to follow that strategy in severe conditions. For instance, if you bet on Liverpool to draw with a €10 starting stake and after ten matches, the “Reds” have eight wins and two losses, you will have a €1,430 damage in your bankroll.

Q: What is the Fibonacci system's main drawback?

Following the Fibonacci betting strategy, you may end up with heavy losses if you suffer a bad streak. For example, if you place ten bets with a €1 initial stake, winning the first two and losing the next eight, your losing amount will be €52. If your starting bet is €5, the total loss will be €260.

Q: Is the Fibonacci or Martingale staking method less risky?

Placing ten bets with a €1 starting stake, you will end up with a €253 loss if you win the first two bets and lose the next sequence of eight. Compared with the €52 loss, if you follow the Fibonacci, you can easily understand that it’s a less aggressive and risky betting strategy.

Q: What are the most popular negative progression systems in betting?

Some betting systems used to attract many bettors worldwide because, for some of them, they work. The most known in betting is the Martingale and its variations, Fibonacci betting system, Labouchere, and D’Alembert.

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