What are Implied Odds in Sports Betting

One of the most crucial parts of online betting is recognizing what the odds represent. Bookies set prices depending on the possibility of an event happening. All of them hide a percentage behind, known as implied probability. The process of turning the odds into percentages helps you reveal how much a bookmaker charges to let you place a bet. It’s challenging to make precise predictions in sports betting, so understanding the meaning of implied odds and identifying an outcome’s chances is undoubtedly beneficial. Read on to learn how these numbers work and the method you can use to calculate them while wagering. Also, discover how to bet online, converting the prominent odds format to possibilities and placing value bets.

• Betting Tools
• System Calculators

How to Work Out the Implied Probability Formula

There are two advantages to using implied odds and our Online Bet Calculators. First, it helps you determine if a betting market is beneficial, comprehending the meaning of VIG. Before we see in-depth how these prices work, let’s look at the rolling dice theory. It’s a theory that purely expresses (i.e., without margins etc.) how possibilities are presented in percentages. Rolling a dice yields a chance of one out of six for each outcome. The probability of the dice coming down on any of these six numbers is equal. That means that the implied probability of any of the six dice numbers to come up is 16,66%.

How to calculate implied probability in decimal odds 

When online betting sites set fixed prices, they present a probability of each possible outcome in odds. These prices determine each result’s chances of happening, with decimal being the most common format type. You can manually convert them to implied odds by solving the equation Implied Probability = (1/Decimal Odds) x 100. Let’s break out an example based on basketball and the NBA match between Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors. Read the table below to see how the implied probability formula works.

Heat vs. Warriors	Decimal Odds	Implied Probability (%)
Heat to WIN	1.71	1/1.71 x 100 = 58,4795%
Warriors to WIN	2.20	1/2.20 x 100 = 45,4545%

Converting the odds to probability on the NBA match, you realize that these numbers surpass 100%. That’s the bookmaker’s guaranteed profit margin. In our example, the VIG (i.e., 3,934%) isn’t so high, typical for 2-way markets. Using our Bankroll Unit Calculator and the Odds Converter, you can build staking plans and work out all formats and their implied probability.

How to work out decimal odds to percentage

Decimal odds express the most direct reflection of your possible outcome for each bet placed. Decimals of 2.00 odds, for example, mean that for every €1 you bet on a specific selection, you will receive a €1 as a payout. The implied probability of 2.00 odds is 50%. The table below presents how to read and convert the most common decimal odds to percentage, creating an odds archive based on their winning chances.

Decimal Odds	Implied Probability (%)
1.25	80%
1.50	66,7%
2.00	50%
2.50	40%
3.00	33,33%
3.50	28,6%
4.00	25%
5.00	20%
10.00	10%
100.00	1%

How to convert fractional odds to probability 

The different odds formats are just another way to express the same thing, but the method to convert odds to probability isn’t the same. Let’s see how we can turn fractional betting odds into percentages using the English Premier League example. The table below contains the results from the implied probability formula {i.e., denominator / (denominator + numerator) x 100}, based on the match Leicester vs. Manchester City.

Leicester vs. Manchester City	Fractional Odds	Implied Probability (%)
Leicester to WIN	5/1	1/(1+5) x 100 = 16,6666%
Draw	16/5	5/(5+16) x 100 = 23,8095%
Manchester City to WIN	8/15	15/(15+8) x 100 = 65,2173%

The conclusions from this conversion are the great chances of the City winning and the high commission. Compared to the example above, you can see that the margin here is considerably bigger at 5,6934%. In general, the more possible outcomes, the higher the VIG is. It’s something that you should always consider, especially when you build a dropping odds strategy.

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Also Read: How to predict correct score

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How to Calculate Implied Odds & Percentages

There’s no difference in converting American odds from 3-way odds, but the two instances require solving two separate equations. To convert positive Moneyline prices to implied odds, use the mathematical equation 100/(Positive American Odds + 100) x 100. On the other hand, to convert negative American odds, you must solve the implied probability formula Negative American Odds/(Negative American Odds + 100) x 100. Let’s examine how to calculate implied odds with an example from the MLB match Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers.

Colorado Rockies vs. LA Dodgers	Moneyline Odds	Implied Probability (%)
Rockies to WIN	+185	100/(185+100) x 100 = 35,08%
Dodgers to WIN	-225	225/(225 + 100) x 100 = 69,23%

Is implied probability the same as odds volatility

These two terms should not be confused as they bear no resemblance whatsoever. Implied probability is the basis for creating an odds set or calculating the chances of a possible outcome. On the other hand, odds volatility represents how susceptible a specific set is to price changes. Odds with high volatility will become shorter or longer with relative ease if large stakes suddenly back them. Volatility is mainly found in exchange markets from betting exchanges, stock exchanges, and spreads betting. You can only take advantage of volatile prices and build an odds movement strategy in low-staked markets to place Sure Bets or cash out your profits.

Why use implied probability odds in sports betting

Implied odds are a valuable alternative to reading and understanding the probability, which helps you answer the fundamental question, “How many chances will I have to win?” Using implied probability odds, you can find each selection’s value and discover how much you pay as a commission. The total payout is always less than what the bettors would receive if the odds reflected the actual chances. So, these odds are crucial for 1) finding value in betting, 2) choosing the highest odds bookmakers, 3) estimating the likelihood of a possible outcome, and 4) securing the best prices.

You can simplify this process using our Implied Odds Calculator or manually convert them by reading our guide. Of course, this isn’t the only way because you can estimate a probable selection by using statistics or tactical analysis, depending on which sports you place a bet on. The implied probability odds helps you to find and take advantage of juicy odds with low VIG. Furthermore, considering the whole conversion process consistently, your chances to bet on value wagers and make a profit will ultimately increase.

Best Bookmakers for Sports Betting

You can find the best online betting sites that offer the most competitive odds and provide a wide range of markets and sports in the list underneath.