With 380 Premier League matches taking place each season, there are certainly plenty of opportunities for punters to place their bets. However, single-match markets are not the only existing ones on offer. Outright betting allows you to predict what will happen at the end of the season and it can make things interesting from the opening weekend all the way through to the last.
One of the most popular options is top 4 betting, which, realistically having just six or seven teams to choose from, is also one of the easiest bets to win. In our betting on top 4 premier league guide, we are going to run through our top tips for the new season, including the best places to place your wagers and the teams that will look to be a surprise act throughout it.
Best Premier League top 4 betting sites
It is important to use the best bookmakers for your top 4 betting and, like many other markets, there are a number of aspects to consider beforehand. First, you will need to find those who offer the best odds in order to maximise your potential winnings. Second, you should keep an eye out for the option to cash out - as some sportsbooks do not allow this function on special bets. Finally, you should look for the option of being able to combine selections. For example, some bookmakers may allow you to select both Tottenham and Liverpool for a top-four finish, while others won’t. Now that you know the criteria to look out for, here is our list of top recommendations:
Current top four betting odds
With top four betting odds being live for the duration of the season, this is also one of the Premier League’s most volatile markets. Because although a team can go through a good run of form, it can just as easily go through a bad one. This means results on the pitch will also have an effect on the odds that the bookmakers set; therefore, values that you see at the start of the campaign may be different as it unfolds.
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Top 4 betting basics
Although some markets can be confusing, top 4 betting is not among them. Here you are simply selecting a team that you think will end up finishing in the top four of the league table. Meanwhile, not only is it found in every major bookmaker, but there is also a variation to it as well. One that comes in the form of top 6 betting, as you select a team to finish in the top six of the final league table. The reason it is so popular is that a top-four finish also means qualification for the following Champions League competition.
While this is always an interesting subplot to any Premier League season. Moreover, this is a market that can be bet on before the season gets underway or while it is in progress – something that only adds more interest to proceedings. Should you place your bets early, the top four betting odds are likely to be larger. However, with every team on zero points at that stage, the element of risk is also attached. Therefore, it is sometimes better to wait until the league is in full swing. The odds may be smaller, but you will at least be able to use the current league table as a guide for your selection.
That being said, it is not worth betting on the favourites in this market. If only because the eventual reward does not pay enough for the wait, you will have to withstand. Therefore, it is always better to select those teams who -you believe- are going to finish third or fourth in the table. Another aspect to consider is the ability to cash out; with odds being able to change in an instant, it makes sense to be able to bank your winnings earlier than the season’s final day. Especially if your selection has a good points advantage but with a difficult set of fixtures ahead.
Best top four predictions
When it comes to making your top four predictions, there are only six or seven genuine contenders for these positions; and although it makes life slightly easier, it can still be a difficult market to find a winner. Thankfully, our four selections below will steer you further in the right direction.
Manchester City - 1.03
In terms of top four predictions, they do not get any safer than Manchester City, and, at odds of 1.03, they are almost guaranteed to earn another invite to next season’s Champions League football. However, this bet is going to do little to worry the bookmakers.
Chelsea - 1.66
A bet that may make the bookmakers sweat is backing Chelsea to earn a return to the Champions League. Although they are operating under new ownership, this should not make too much difference on the field, where a top-four finish looks likely.
Arsenal - 2.50
However, they are not the only riders in this race and with Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal falling short last time, they will look to fare better this season. While at 2.50 odds, they cannot be overlooked for a top-four finish either.
Manchester United - 2.75
While the same can also be said for Manchester United. Although last season was one to forget, the arrival of Erik ten Hag as manager has given supporters a reason to be optimistic. With top four betting odds of 2.75, they probably have yet another reason to be cheerful.
Most successful top four finishers
When looking to make your top four predictions, one thing to consider is previous performance in the Premier League. The best way to measure it is by looking at which teams finish in the top four the most. When looking at the past 10 seasons of the Premier League, here are the statistics that you need to know:
⏩ Manchester City have a 100% success rate when it comes to top four finishes
⏩ Chelsea has an 80% success rate
⏩ Liverpool’s rate stands at 70%
⏩ Tottenham and Manchester United both have a 50% success rate
⏩ Arsenal’s rate drops to a 40%
⏩ Leicester has just a 10% top four success rate - although this was when they actually won the Premier League title in 2016.
A final thought about Premier League Top 4 Betting
Although top 4 betting is worth the time and effort, that effort should better be placed on the hunt for some good value. Therefore, when it comes to this market, you should avoid any teams with odds that are 1.50 or lower. Meanwhile, if you are to place any bet within this market, you must remember that any winnings can only come at the end of the season.
Which means this must be treated as a longer-term investment. Then again, it pays to wait because top four betting odds will be shorter towards the end of the season. The reason for this is that the Premier League table will be far less volatile than it is at the start. With that in mind, here is our recommended list of bookmakers:
Although the Premier League can only crown one champion per season, a top four finish still offers qualification to the Champions League. In terms of the team that has achieved this feat the most, it is Manchester United. With 25 top four finishes to their name in the past 30 years, they are often found competing in Europe’s premier club competition; and although they missed out on an invite at the end of 2021/22 season, they should not be overlooked when it comes to top 4 betting. However, in recent years, it is Manchester City who have been the gold standard. During the past 10 seasons of the Premier League, the Etihad outfit have finished in the top four each and every time.
With Erik ten Hag being appointed as the new manager, a new era at Old Trafford has begun. An era that supporters hope will see the club challenge for the Premier League once more. However, such hopes may be unfounded this season and with many punters not including Manchester United in their top four predictions, the Red Devils may just have to live with another top six finish instead.
When it comes to top 4 betting, this market largely mirrors Premier League’s outright odds. Which means that Manchester City are the current favourites at odds of 1.03, with Liverpool not that far behind in second at 1.12. Therefore, a predicted top 4 Premier League finish from either of last season’s top two, will be of little concern to those who set the odds. While looking further down the list, Antonio Conte’s Tottenham will be confident of returning to the Champions League and their current top four betting odds are 1.61 – just slightly smaller than Chelsea’s 1.66.
Premier League top 4 betting is settled when a team mathematically cannot finish any lower than the fourth place in the final table. For example, if Manchester City find themselves 10 points clear of Arsenal in fifth with three games to go, they could not be overtaken by the Gunners. Therefore, for the purposes of this market, if you were to back Manchester City for a top four finish, this would be considered a winner. However, if the bet is still open on the final day of the season, the league table will act as the guide for overall settlement.
Although selecting Manchester City and Liverpool in the Premier League top four betting is likely to lead to a winner, it will not offer too much in the way of a return. Therefore, the best bets are on those who you think will finish third or fourth at the end of the season. Which means backing the likes of Tottenham in this market, will offer the right balance between risk and reward. While for those who want to take more of a risk, Arsenal’s top four betting odds of 2.50 are also worth considering.
With the Premier League season always being full of twists and turns, top 4 betting is still a worthwhile market during the middle of the campaign. Because teams being in the top four at the halfway stage, can easily be outside it at the end of the season. By the same token, those teams that occupy fifth or sixth midseason, may find some late momentum, like Tottenham did during the 2021/22 season. Therefore, this is always a market to keep an eye on.
After another impressive showing last season, West Ham will look to progress even further under David Moyes. However, for those who include the Hammers in their top four predictions, this level of progress may just be a step too far. Especially when you consider their current top four betting odds at 15.00, clearly showing that the bookmakers are not confident of such a finish at the end of the season.
For those asking if the top four betting odds are worth it, the answer depends on who you place your bets on. If you are thinking of backing Manchester City or Liverpool, they are perhaps better ways to make some money. Then again, if your attention is placed on the likes of Arsenal and Manchester United and either side does finish in the top four at the end of the season, this is definitely a bet that you could consider worthwhile.