Gibraltar Licenses Europe’s First Prediction Market

It’s less than a week since Gibraltar confirmed itself as a pioneer of the online iGaming market. The jurisdiction issued a gambling license to Predict Street Ltd., effective April 2, and marked another history-making decision in the industry. Predict Street is the first major European company to become officially regulated as a prediction market.

Platforms like this allow their users to trade on events such as elections, financial developments, real-world outcomes, and more. Gibraltar decided it’s time to create a dedicated betting-intermediary platform to capture the emerging “gambleFi” market. This way, the country ensures that technical standards and AML protocols meet the high-level expectations it has set, thereby providing a secure environment.

How Open Is Europe To Prediction Markets?

Malta was the first country supposedly to regulate prediction markets, but Gibraltar was faster. Not all countries are viewing this new industry positively. At the beginning of 2026, France’s regulatory authority classified prediction markets as “non-regulated” and “unauthorized”.

The ANJ argues that these platforms lack the mechanisms for player and fund protection found in regulated sportsbooks and enforced geo-blocking. Similarly, Germany has an equally strict approach under the Interstate Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV 2021).

Since the start of 2026, the authorities have increased site blocking procedures and asked payment providers to prevent funds from moving to and from the non-regulated prediction market ecosystem.

Finally, the UKGC is adamant: prediction markets are not financial products, but gambling. Although they haven’t granted any licenses so far, they are open to accepting any platform as long as it obtains a Betting Intermediary License, similar to the one used by Betfair. This means they will face the 21% Remote Gaming Duty, which is likely why prediction markets haven’t yet applied for a license.