Finland waited in what seemed like forever to join a major tournament. Since the Finnish football association became a FIFA member, the national team never qualified for the World Cup or Euro. That changes in Euro 2020 as Finland will debut in such a prestigious competition. Bookmakers rank the Finland Euro 2020 team as the weakest in the tournament, with odds of winning 501.00 (500/1). Players like Teemu Pukki and Jesse Joronen want to prove them wrong, but can they cause some major upsets?
In our Finland football Euro 2020 analysis, we look into the called-up players, likely lineup, and the tactics Markku Kanerva prefers to follow. Latest matches, official and friendlies are taken into account to evaluate the squad’s form. We also offer up-to-date odds, picks and predictions from our handpicked sportsbooks for daily and outright markets.
Finland Euro 2021 Odds & Predictions
Most betting sites consider the Finland Euro 2020 squad the darkest horse in Euro 2021 with North Macedonia. That stems from the fact that most footballers play in mediocre teams or do not have regular playing time. Therefore, the experience at the top level is missing. Moreover, it is the first time since 1908 that Finland takes part in a competition like Euro. The team’s performance in the 2022 World Cup Qualifiers, while not bad, did not show any great prospects.
So, is there a glimmer of hope for the Finns? That is pretty tough to say, also considering the group they are. Opponents include no.1 in FIFA ranking Belgium, Denmark and Russia. Finland will play all games away, in Copenhagen and Saint Petersburg. In the opening match against the Danish, the Euro 2020 Finland team could count on the surprise element. The X2 double chance in that match can return a high value. Check our picks and predictions right ahead:
✔️Group B ⏩ Finland to Qualify from Group B @3.40 (12/5) odds
✔️Group B ⏩ Finland to finish 3rd in Group B @4.00 (3/1) odds
✔️Euro 2020 ⏩ Finland to win or draw in the opening match vs. Denmark @2.50 (6/4) odds
Finland Euro 2020 Fixtures & Schedule
The Finland Euro 2020 group also includes Belgium, Russia and Denmark. Bookmakers have a pretty clear idea of who is going to take which place. Belgium is the clear favorite of finishing first in the group (at 1.72 or 8/11 odds) and winning the tournament. Denmark is the most probable runner-up (at 3.75 or 11/4), having the advantage of playing all matches on home turf. Russia ranks as the candidate for third place at 5.00 (4/1) odds. Bookies believe that the Finns are likely bound to finish last in the group. The odds for winning it are 17.00 (16/1), clearly a very long shot.
However, if Finland manages to score a victory, it could challenge for third place. Remember, the best four third-placed teams will qualify to the Round of 16. One win against Denmark or Russia could be all that Finland needs. A qualification spot pays at 3.40 (12/5) odds, quite lucrative if you believe it might happen.
|Finland's Group Matches||Date||Venue|
|Denmark vs. Finland||12th June 2021 / 18:00 CET||Parken Stadium, Copenhagen|
|Finland vs. Russia||16th June 2021 / 15:00 CET||Krestovsky Stadium, Saint Petersburg|
|Finland vs. Belgium||21st June 2021 / 21:00 CET||Krestovsky Stadium, Saint Petersburg|
*If Group B gives one of the best 3rd-placed teams to advance to the Last-16.
Can Finland qualify from Group B
Every sportsbook considers that Finland has gone the extra mile just by qualifying for Euro 2020. Hence, the odds for going to the knockout phase are on the higher end. The latest odds for the Finland Euro 2020 group are laid out below:
⏩ To Win Group @17.00 (16/1)
⏩ To Qualify Group @3.40 (12/5)
⏩ To Place 2nd @10.00 (9/1)
⏩ Not to Qualify Group @1.36 (4/11)
If the Euro 2020 Finland squad defies the odds and qualifies to the knockout stages of the tournament, the matchups are the following:
|Finland's Group Place||Last-16 Probable Opponents|
|1st||3rd place Group A (Italy, Turkey, Wales, Switzerland) / 3rd place Group D (England, Croatia, Scotland, Czech Republic) / 3rd place Group C (Netherlands, Ukraine, Austria, North Macedonia)|
|2nd||Winner Group D (England, Croatia, Scotland, Czech Republic)|
|3rd*||Winner Group B (Denmark, Finland, Belgium, Russia) / Winner Group E (Spain, Sweden, Poland, Slovakia)|
The only realistic scenario is the one that Finland finishes third. If it qualifies as one of the best four third-placed teams, it will meet the winner of Group F or E. That means a matchup with France, Germany, Portugal or Spain. The outcome of such a clash seems inevitable; however, if Finland goes past the group stage, it will have already done an unprecedented success.
✔️Our prediction: The highest value bet with a chance of coming true is that Finland finishes in third place. If that means a qualification to the Round of 16, the odds increase to 3.40 (12/5).
What odds & bets bookies offer for Finland
Even if the bookies have Finland as the least favorite of winning the trophy, they offer several markets if you decide to place your bet on the team. The manager, Markku Kanerva, has warned that his team will be no pushover, and there are a few players to give opponents a rough time.
Teemu Pukki (90 caps, 30 goals) is the trademark player of the Finland Euro 2020 team. The striker of Norwich City comes from an excellent season, scoring 26 goals in the Championship. As a result, he led the team to a Premier League promotion. Since he also played in Sevilla, Celtic and Schalke, he carries some much-needed international experience. Pukki scored ten goals in the qualifying phase of Euro 2020, and he wants to pick up where he left off.
As the team’s goalkeeper, Jesse Joronen (11 caps) will have a lot of work against enemy attackers. A regular at Serie B, Brescia, he made a recent breakthrough to the Finland national team. Since then, he has become a staple in the lineup. If Joronen puts some excellent performances on the pitch, the Finns might have a chance for the third spot.
✔️Our prediction: The opening match in every tournament is the most likely one for a surprise to occur. Finland will play Denmark in Copenhagen, and a win or draw for Kanerva’s team pays at 2.50 (6/4) odds.
Finland Euro 2020 Lineup & Tactics
We evaluate the recent form of the Euro 2020 Finland squad based on the last official and friendly matches. Furthermore, with the call-ups finalized, we can look into the lineup and the structure of Markku Kanerva’s team.
The manager took his time to decide the final call-ups, as he did it close to the deadline. However, he did not exclude any star players or called an unexpected newcomer. Feel free to check the complete 26-man squad below:
|GK||Lukas Hradecky||31||64||0||Bayer Leverkusen|
|GK||Anssi Jaakkola||34||3||0||Bristol Rovers|
|DF||Leo Vaisanen||23||6||0||IF Elfsborg|
|DF||Niko Hämäläinen||24||6||0||Queens Park Rangers|
|DF||Daniel O’Shaugnessy||26||10||0||HJK Helsinki|
|DF||Robert Ivanov||26||3||0||Warta Poznan|
|DF||Nikolai Alho||28||8||0||MTK Budapest|
|DF||Jukka Raitala||32||51||0||Minnesota United|
|DF||Pyry Soiri||26||28||5||Esbjerg fB|
|MF||Robin Lod||28||42||4||Minnesota United|
|MF||Rasmus Schuller||29||40||0||Djurgårdens IF|
|MF||Thomas Lam||27||22||0||PEC Zwolle|
|MF||Joni Kauko||30||16||0||Esbjerg fB|
|MF||Lassi Lappalainen||22||7||0||CF Montréal|
|FW||Teemu Pukki||31||90||30||Norwich City|
|FW||Joel Pohjanpalo||26||41||9||Union Berlin|
The Key Players & Tactics
The Finland Euro 2020 team is centered around Teemu Pukki. While there are some worthy footballers in other positions, the Finns seem to lack overall quality. That does not apply to the goalkeeper, as Jesse Joronen has the skill to withstand heavy pressure. In defense, Robert Ivanov and Joona Toivio will be very busy facing some world-class forwards. Glen Kamara and Robin Lod will set up the plays in the midfield, with the ultimate target being to assist Pukki on the attack.
On May 29, in the friendly against Sweden, Kanerva opted for a 3-4-3 formation. The match ended in a 2-0 defeat but keep in mind that Finland missed several key players. In previous fixtures, the manager used both four and five midfielders. While the three central defenders look certain, the chances are that the most likely structure will be 3-5-2.
The Probable Lineup
Considering 3-5-2 as the final formation, we can conclude the eleven starters. Jesse Joronen will be the goalkeeper, with three center backs in front of him. Robert Ivanov, Joona Toivio and Daniel O'Shaughnessy will try to build a wall to protect the defense. Glen Kamara, Tim Sparv and Robert Taylor will act as central midfielders, while Jere Uronen and Robin Lod as wingers. Teemu Pukki and Marcus Forss will have to challenge the opponent’s defense for the Euro 2020 Finland squad to qualify.
Markku Kanerva has built quite a reputation in Finnish football. First, as a player for domestic clubs and the national team for fifteen years. After retirement, he took up coaching. He was no stranger to the national team, as he coached the U21 for six years and was assistant coach to the men’s squad for five years. Since 2016 he is the manager of the Finland national team. He led it for the first time in a major tournament, Euro 2020. In 34 matches, he has 19 wins, three draws and 12 losses.
The fact that the Finland Euro 2020 team ranks low in odds does not mean a lack of available markets. Our top sportsbook will offer high odds and many selections to choose from. Feel free to explore them in full.