With the Conservatives currently in government, their next leader will not only be in charge of the party but also the country as the Prime Minister. When the existing PM, Boris Johnson, resigned in early July, eleven candidates stood forward to replace him. Three failed to get enough support to be nominated, needing at least 20 MPS to be behind them, leaving eight candidates. Gradually these candidates were whittled down, with those with the least support in each round being eliminated, until on July 20th, there were two left.
Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss fought for the right to become Prime Minister and during the September 5th elections, Truss emerged victorious. However, after a series of unimpressive moves, she was forced to retire and now the election race is back on. In this article, you will find the new Next Conservative Leader Odds, the profile of the candidates and the latest betting tips. When gambling on such a market, it’s crucial to have the right bookie. Here are our top picks.
What are the Odds On Next Conservative Leader?
It’s Sunak that is the undeniable favorite to be the next Conservative leader. Sunak already had a large portion of the party on his side, so the idea of betting against him would be inadvisable. The only candidate that appears to be at least a bit close is Penny Mordaunt. Let's take a look at the latest odds.
|Candidate||Fractional Odds||Decimal Odds||Implied Probability|
Who Will Be The Next Leader Of The Conservative Party?
The contest to be the next Tory leader and Prime Minister of the UK is down to just two candidates. Both Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt have served together as senior ministers under Boris Johnson’s leadership and now compete to replace him. Below, we have assessed the two remaining candidates, presenting the essential information about them, which includes their Next Conservative Leader odds.
Candidate #1 - Penny Mordaunt
Born in 1973 in Devon, Mordaunt has served as both the Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons. She has a lot of experience since she was serving in Teressa May's cabinet (Secretary of State) and as a junior prime minister for the Boris Johnson regime. Even though she is a long-shot, she is the only one relatively close to challenge Sunak's claim to the title. Nonetheless, we have to underline that she was out-edged by both Sunak and Truss once already.
Candidate #2 - Rishi Sunak
Born in Southampton in 1980, Sunak was Chancellor of the Exchequer for over two years until his resignation on 5th July, in a move that signalled the end of Johnson’s reign. Sunak has been endorsed by Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, along with his former cabinet colleagues Matt Hancock and Grant Shapps. In the MP's 5th ballot, he finished top with 38.3% of the vote. The former favourite to succeed Johnson, he’s now out to 5.4 (2.25). Sunak has been the only candidate to state that he won’t cut taxes, aside from lifting the VAT on energy bills.
Next Conservative Leader Betting tips
Rishi Sunak may be the frontrunner to become the next PM, but there is still some time for campaigning. There may still be some changes in the Next Tory Leader Odds, so here are some tips for betting on the contest.
⏩ Look into the polls: Whenever there’s a political election, it’s worth looking at the polls from organizations such as YouGov. The polls that you should consider are the ones that survey Tory members. The vote to be the next leader is only open to the 160,000 Conservative Party members.
⏩ Shop around the odds: Use odds comparison sites to find the best odds available, then open an account with the bookie. They are particularly likely to fluctuate during televised debates.
⏩ Listen to the experts: There are two types of experts to pay attention to during this contest. Political experts and betting experts. From the political perspective, such experts will have insider information from Westminster. Betting experts will not just look at who is the likely winner but will also factor in the value of the odds.
⏩ Search for history: Since the Conservatives changed their leadership election system to include a final vote by party members (previously, the winner was chosen by MPs), there have been four contests. In three of them, the winner has received around two-thirds of the vote, as shown in our table below.
|Year of Tory Election||Winner & Votes||Runner-Up & Votes|
|2019||Boris Johnson, 92,153 (66.4%)||Jeremy Hunt, 46,656 (33.6%)|
|2016||Theresa May, unopposed||N/A|
|2005||David Cameron, 134,446 (67.6%)||David Davis, 64,398 (32.4%)|
|2001||Iain Duncan Smith, 155,933 (60.7%)||Kenneth Clarke, 100,864 (39.3%)|
Full list of the Next Conservative Leader Elections bookmakers
We hope you found our article on the Conservative leadership election helpful. By now, you should have concluded on who will be the next Tory leader and over the coming weeks, the situation should get more apparent. Below is a complete list of the bookies offering betting on the Conservative leadership election.
Online bookies will have odds on who will be the new Tory leader in their Politics section. With the contest constantly in the news, the market will likely be prominently displayed on the home pages of bookmakers. Use odds comparison sites to determine who offers the best odds on your preferred candidate.
The Conservative Party are calling for a new leader. As the Tories are currently in government, the winner of this contest will succeed Liz Truss and become the new Prime Minister. The next general election is in January 2025 unless the Conservatives decide to call it sooner.
Check out the polls that take in some of the 160,000 Tory members that will vote in this election. Also, pay attention to political experts and betting tipsters, as they should have valuable insight into who will win. Shop around with different bookies to get the correct odds.
Eight candidates found enough support from fellow Tory MPs to enter the contest. Over five ballots, the Conservative MPs whittled the candidates down to two. Now the Conservative Party members will vote between Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt. There are said to be around 160,000 party members.