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Dropping odds Explained: Build a dropping odds strategy

dropping oddsDropping odds is a condition in betting when the initial prices of specific markets decrease. Bettors use these odds in order to make a profit, finding value from any bookie that is late to adjust them. Experienced players monitor the real-time updates with two main targets. Firstly, they choose the highest value of one selection and then try to maximize the ROI (i.e., Return on Investment). If you want to start betting on dropping odds, registering with as many bookmakers as possible is essential. Following this way, you will increase the number of choices, and you will be better positioned to take advantage of the situation. So, read on to learn why the initial odds decrease and how you can build a profitable dropping odds strategy.

What does dropping odds mean

Betting on politicsMany bettors analyze pre-match odds as a tool to understand where they will place money. Then they choose whether to back the popular choice or not. Wagering on dropping odds means that you bet on a bookie that has yet to adjust the prices according to market movements. Let’s say the average industry odds are 2.00 for over 2.5 goals in a match. If a single bookmaker keeps the initial price at 2.40 odds, you can assume this is a good bet and buy it.

This betting trend is being created for various reasons and is affected by an unspecified number of factors. Some inside pieces of information about a team or an athlete might be transpired and increase a selection’s betting volume. One or more missing influencing players for a favorite can affect an odds set. Αnother parameter might be a rumor that a match is suspected of being fixed. Also, the large wagers on a specific probable outcome can lead the online bookmakers to drop odds.

In betting, every trend based on dropping odds is determined not only from the factors above but from the leading bookmakers themselves. Like Pinnacle, Betfair, and Sbobet, the top-rated bookies define the industry and the odds’ probable trends, making the odds movement possible.

How Moneyway affects odds dropping

betting types on politicsMoneyway is an essential indicator that shows the amount and volume of the money wagered on a specific event. The more money wagered on one selection shows the greater possibility to happen. As a result, this influences the initial odds. In all cases that the Moneyway of a pick has a large percentage of money wagered, the odds drop is a natural consequence.

However, you might have also heard about this “heavy boat theory.” What does this mean? That you shouldn’t overrate this dropping odds issue. Many bettors are loading a specific selection, but it doesn’t prove that this selection will be a winning one. In fact, this theory asserts the exact opposite. When a boat is overloaded and becomes heavy, it has more chances to sink.

Just look at popular bets and trendy betting options about hot favorites and various teams. You will find out that many of these favorites don’t win, even if they have gathered a significant total stake. So, it would be best if you always were suspicious when you come across these conditions on the most popular teams.

How to build a dropping odds strategy

Understanding why the odds drop on a sporting event is hard-earned, but monitoring these changes and using the latest betting trends on specific markets isn’t difficult. Using a tracker, you can cache plenty of information just in a few minutes. You will be able to learn the percentage of odds decrease, the initial and closing odds. Read on some practical advice in order to create a dropping odds strategy:

⏩You should divide your total bankroll into more than one online bookmaker. There’s no rule about the correct number in this dropping odds strategy, but having about 5-10 different accounts seems enough.

⏩Be quick when you discover something that may affect the odds, like last-minute injuries or suspensions. You may be able to get a head start on the bookmaker. If odds drop for no apparent reason, you should seriously consider backing the team or player whose odds are now more profitable.

⏩When you look at the odds, the most important thing to consider is the number of bookies where odds have moved. Usually, a basic movement is reliable when the odds have changed over 70% of the available betting firms. That is considered a global movement.

⏩The total percentage of dropping odds is another fact. Odds could lower from 1.80 to 1.65, 3.00 to 2.80 or from 20.00 to 15.00. Which of them is truly worthy of being considered a crucial change? Usually, bettors follow the “15% Rule”; this specific percentage is the minimum limit of change. Any movement higher than 15% will alert those experienced ones.

Get the best dropping odds tips & win

Bookmakers drop odds to correct the starting prices to reflect the actual probability of a selection to happen or balance their VIG. A progressive or a sudden drop of the odds might be profitable for a player. An experienced bettor can secure an early return before the match where he places a bet on starts. Let’s get advice from some dropping odds tips in pre-game markets using an extreme but real example based on a volleyball match from the Estonian Women Meistriliiga.

The starting odds for the visitor team TTU to win at Famila/Voru’s ground was 2.82 odds. A few hours before the game started, the odds based on TTU dropped at 1.02 odds. Let’s see how a bettor who places a €50 wager on TTU’s win secure returns hours before the match begins.

TTU Starting Odds TTU Dropping Odds Drop Ratio (%) Probable Returns Pre-match Cash Out
2.82 1.02 -64% €50 x 2.82 = €141 €124.4118*

*Pre-match Cash Out = Probable Returns / Dropping Odds x (1-VIG) = 141/1.02 x (1 - 0,1) = 138.2352 x 0.9 = 124.4118.

red arrowThe bookmaker’s VIG is 10% (i.e., 0.1 as a decimal number), so using the Cash Out feature, the bettor can have a payout close to his potential winnings without waiting for the match to finish. The outcome difference is only €16.5882, and the clear pre-match profit is €74.418.

How to use football dropping odds

The table below presents another example based on this strategy for betting with football dropping odds. Our example refers to the Ternana vs. Cavese match from the Italian Serie C and a €50 Double Chance wager on the visitors.

DC Cavese Starting Odds DC Cavese Dropping Odds Drop Ratio (%) Probable Returns Pre-match Cash Out
3.67 2.89 -21% €50 x 3.67 = €183.5 €57.1453

 

red arrowWith a 10% VIG and using the pre-match Cash Out service, your clear early returns are €7.1453 (i.e., Pre-match Cash Out - Starting Stake). Your potential earrings would be considerably higher if you let the bet roll, but earning almost €7 without expecting the final result isn’t bad at all.

Where to avoid betting on dropping odds

There are a few online sharp betting sites that apply a different approach to the odds dropping pattern. They consider the professional bettors not as threats but as valuable helpers in order to shape the offered fixed odds. So, they always offer high and competitive odds and don’t use to follow the tactic to decrease prices.

On the other hand, soft bookmakers prefer to target casual bettors. The odds adjustment is really slow, and the sharp bettors who bet on dropping odds are considered irritating. Choosing to build a dropping odds strategy on these bookies should be risky if you have a specific pattern (i.e., bet on high stakes, always at the same competitions). The most probable ending will be to have account restrictions and limitations. Gubbing is a preventing measure that soft bookies use against sharp bettors.

What is betting against dropping odds

There is also an alternative dropping odds strategy, going against them. As many bets are being placed, bookies will be forced to change prices, thus affecting both teams’ probabilities. Once that happens, they no longer correspond with the original match prediction the bookmakers had, which is generally more accurate. Let’s see what happens when Club Leon plays against Toronto FC in the CONCACAF Champions League. The final result was a 1-1 draw.

Starting Odds Implied Starting Odds Closing Odds Implied Closing Odds Drop Ratio (%)
1.61 62,1% 1.31 76,3% -18,63%

 

red arrowThe prices on favorites increase the implied probability of this selection, but the final result didn’t favor that trend. Betting against these odds can be a profitable strategy, wildly when backing underestimated underdogs. The other decision you can make when you see odds dropping up to 15% is to ignore it. This trend has nothing to do with a specific pick’s real winning chances. Let’s look at the Over 3.5 Goals at Half Time for Champions League’s match Dortmund vs. Manchester City.

Starting Odds Implied Starting Odds Dropping Odds Implied Dropping Odds Drop Ratio (%)
14.78 6,8% 11.72 8,5% -21%

 

red arrowHere the trend increases the selection’s winning chances from 6.8% to 8.5%. That means nothing about the odds drop because the pick’s implied probability continues being low.

How to make a profit from dropping odds 1X2

Payoneer spyOne method to take advantage of dropping odds 1X2, for example, is to create a strategy that can identify the matches where the lines are pushed down on an Asian bookmaker. Τhen you can receive the highest odds offered on a European online bookmaker. Τhat happens because the Asian bookies have ultimately higher ceilings to offer when you place your bet. A bettor can stake a larger amount of money than European bookies, so the faster odds decrease is a pretty typical situation.

If you are quick enough, you will find odds before they drop. Focus on a difference of more than 2.5% (for example, from 2.00 falling to 1.90). It is a simple strategy to use and can give you an idea of a specific selection’s probability. It would help if you remembered that the bookmaker’s target is to balance the potential payouts for all possible outcomes. Keep in mind this equality if you decide to base your strategy on dropping odds 1X2:

Total Bets on Home WIN for Team A x Odds for Team A = Total Bets on Draw x Odds for Draw = Total Bets on Away WIN for Team B x Odds for Team B

When you are sure if the odds are too volatile, you can profit by taking advantage of possible dropping odds. You can realize the true odds (i.e., reading for their implied probability) and find online betting sites that have not reacted to the dropping odds 1X2. Placing a value bet in these circumstances is worthwhile, and it can secure earnings back.

On the other hand, you can avoid this situation by placing your bets as soon as the odds are set. There is always a difference between initial and closing odds. In this case, you should be prepared; there are last-minute parameters that can influence your bet, such as the disability of a player to take part (e.g., because he is injured) or probable lousy weather conditions.

Where should I bet on dropping odds

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FAQ
Q: Why do odds drop?

The main reason is that the odds of a specific choice are overwhelmingly selected by the majority of bettors, who considered this choice to have value. As a chain reaction, bookmakers will adjust the odds in such levels to find a balance considered fair by the bettors.

Q: How to use in-play dropping odds?

Understanding why odds are dropping during a sports event is a more complicated situation because every minute, the game scenario is changing. So, every conclusion based on odds might not be safe enough. You can follow the “15% Rule” for pre-match and in-play betting to make your decisions and moves.

Q: How do bookies affect the market?

Online bookmakers can play their own “mind games” by altering the odds sets. All betting sites take a severe look at the total money a bet gets, so if too much is waged on team A, they simply decrease the odds. The effect is obvious; fewer people will bet on that team.

Q: What is the Odds Drop Ratio?

The Odds Drop Ratio is the total percentage of odds changing. For example, the 2 (-0.25 A.H.) on Lippstadt against Dusseldorf II, for the German Regionalliga West, from 2.85 odds decreases to 2.25 odds. The Drop Ratio in this selection is 21%.

Q: Do bettors need to use a dropping odds tracker?

A player should check the odds drop manually at the start in order to understand how the process works. Then a dropping odds tracker should be helpful to inform them instantly of the bookies’ changes.

Q: What is the closing odds meaning?

Closing odds are the result of how the betting market has reacted to all available information, news, and stats about a particular selection’s outcome. These odds are configured and offered before match kick-off.

Q: Are dropping odds an indication for fixed matches?

A sudden odds decrease doesn’t always mean there is a fraud. If the bookmakers are suspicious of fixed matches, they usually block the odds. That means they are not accepting bets on these events and stop, of course, every odds adjustment.

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