Live betting is something like travelling to the Far West about 150 years ago: An exciting adventure, a trip to the unknown, full of amazing opportunity but also full of extreme danger. You can make a fortune, but you can lose your entire bankroll in the blink of an eye. The answer to the question "how to win on live betting" is discipline and self-control.
Live betting’s extreme popularity from the first moment it was offered to punters is based on the belief that it’s easier to beat the bookies if you bet when a sports event is taking place, as you can watch the action in real-time and make more informed decisions.
In fact, live betting is even harder to handle. Having all these odds dancing in front of you every second is tempting, so you have to adopt a fully professional approach and a good live betting strategy. That is not easy, of course, and is proved by online bookmakers’ revenue from live betting. It is far bigger (nearly 60%) than the traditional pre-game markets.
In live betting (or in-play betting, or in-running betting, as some online bookmakers call it) you place your bet after a sports event has started and could place consecutive bets till its conclusion. All bookies offer a huge variety of in-play bets for multiple events. Football, basketball, tennis and horse racing still remain the most popular markets.
Live betting: Basic strategy tips
- Whatever live betting strategy you choose to follow (you’ll read lots of them below), don’t forget the basic rule: NEVER place bets to regain losses. Live betting is the most tempting way to “recover” after a lost bet, but if you follow this, the most probable scenario is to increase your losses. In-play betting needs a lot of preparation, a lot of focus and a lot of patience.
- In order to win on live betting, don’t place many in-play bets at the same time. Focus on one or two, watch carefully and wait for the right moment to bet. If you have many in-play bets at your slip, you lose the right momentum. Your bet is a matter of luck rather than capability.
- Before placing your bet the right way is to actually watch the match you’re interested in. Don’t just lean on “Match Live” statistics with all that “Dangerous Attacks” and “Off Target shots” that may give you a totally wrong picture. The best scenario is to choose online bookmakers with a lot of live streaming events and focus on them only.
- In order to win on live betting, you should do your homework. For example, analyzing stats is a powerful weapon: If stats say that a specific team scores nearly 40% of goals in the last 15 minutes of a game, this is what you have to do. The best live betting strategy is to keep your own stats, but there are plenty of bet stats websites to help you.
Pros and cons of live betting
👍 Live analysis: The most basic is that in-play betting allows you to watch what’s going on in the match right before you place your bet. Watching the action even for a couple of minutes before deciding when to bet could be more crucial than whole hours of research and stats reading.
👍 Value betting: It’s far easier to find value in an in-running bet. A favorite offered at 1.30 odds pre-match could be found at 1.80-1.85 at halftime, but in theory, it has the same possibilities of winning the tie. In addition, deciding to back an Over 2.5 goals bet, the odds offered after just a few minutes of play are much higher and keep on rising as the playing time passes without a goal. If you’re patient enough to wait for the right moment, you’ll find a bet in extremely valuable odds.
👍Covering pre-match bets: The cash-out, offered during in-running bets, is another weapon for you to make your bankroll look safer. If you’ve placed a pre-match risky bet (putting money on the underdog, for example) and they take the lead, you could “close” your bet with profit, no matter the final score.
👍Countless opportunities: You can place in-play bets almost 24/7 nowadays, as almost all online bookies offer a huge variety of bets in many different sports. If you think you’re a live betting specialist, you have no time limit to prove your ability.
👍Use more than one bookmakers: Last, but most important of all. As there’s a hard rivalry between various online bookmakers, odds in live betting could be a lot different. In fact, some bookies adjust odds based on different algorithms, so you will notice far higher differences in odds than the pre-match bets. Use more than one bookies, compare odds and choose the highest available in order to win on live betting.
You can benefit regardless if you’re a single-bet punter or you prefer parlays. Having, for example, four active accounts on online bookmakers you can choose the highest odds available every time. This means you gain at least a 10% increase of your total odds, so eventually, your gains should be increased by a similar percentage. This is extremely crucial for your total bank at the end of the season.
👎Limited time: When placing a live bet, you feel all the time that somebody is chasing you. You don’t have enough time to manage your feelings, calculate profit and loss and focus on a new strategy. If you’re stressed, you risk on taking the wrong decisions.
👎Live betting addiction: Having a lot of in-play games in front of you, with odds and matches dancing all over, could be harmful for you. Don’t stick on your screen for ages, taking one bet after another. You must limit your time and your number of bets instead.
👎Same match persistence: Don’t exaggerate loading the same match with a lot of bets, especially when you lose one and you insist on something (for example, who will score the next goal). Don’t let your ego guide you, accept loss and focus on another match or, better for you, skip betting.
In play football betting Tips
Contrary to common belief, there’s no perfect live betting strategy you can follow. In fact, anyone could discover a winning strategy that fits their style of play and bankroll. The key parameters of setting a live betting strategy are only two: Time and odds.
Playing time is considered as the defining factor of live betting. The odds keep on moving upwards and downwards depending on how much playing time is left. Punters can take advantage of this time regardless of their style of play if they simply back picks to be confirmed or not. The simple rule is to place an early bet in picks bound not to happen (such as draw odds, under 2,5 goals or under a specific number of corner kicks), as the odds are moving downwards.
On the contrary, a late bet in picks to happen could lead to huge odds. Of course, the winning percentage in those picks is traditionally far less than others, but the odds are obviously better and could prove to be much more profitable.
The key is to decide from the beginning the exact time limit, when the bet should be placed. For example, if you decide to place an Over 2.5 bet after the match has started, you should also decide that you could place it in the 20th minute or at halftime instead of watching and waiting.
Live betting and odds movements
Odds movements depend not only on the playing time remaining but also on various other aspects, such as the score and the players remaining on the field. For every aspect there’s a pattern followed by all bookmakers, which determines the specific movement of the odds. If the odds of a home win are 1.50 just before the kick-off, in 15 min. then they should be at 1.65 in case a goal has not been scored.
In this case as well, the key is to pre-decide the odds limit, when you think the pick will gain some added value. If you make a decision beforehand, i.e. that you’ll place a bet on a home win as soon as the odds reach a specific limit (i.e. 1.80), this will prevent any possible drawbacks. Of course, there’s a possibility of not placing some bets within seconds (your backed team scores with the odds in 1.79), but waiting all the time for the best odds to come could cause a feeling of all-time wasting.
Go against popular bets
This is something few punters would advise you, but if you observe carefully for a while how odds are moving, you could come to this conclusion yourselves. Let’s begin with logic. If the majority of punters were right every time, all bookmakers would have gone bankrupt! Few bettors gain long-term profit while the vast majority are losers. That’s a fact. So, if you steadily go against the current, you’ll have more chances to win on live betting in the long term.
How does this stand? Punters usually tend to back teams who’ve won their last game against teams that they’ve lost their last game. This kind of makes sense, as they don’t expect from the teams to perform differently in a short period of time (usually smaller than a week). But in most cases, especially nowadays, they watch the exact opposite scenario: Teams losing their last match appear more motivated to react and teams who’ve won their last match tend to be more relaxed.
Live betting on cards
Apart from live betting on the match result or total goals scored, there are also strategies for other betting markets, such as the number of corners and yellow/red card bookings. As for corner kick bets, you should first get a feel for the game and then place your wagers. Opt for matches swinging from end to end or those, where the hosts are battering down on the underdog visitors.
In card betting watch out for the referee’s habits (whether he tries to put things under control with an early card or is tolerant to aggressive gameplay). You should also take a look through the line-ups and players preparing for kick-off to find out whether they’re nervous or not, so you could place a bet for the first booking.
The best way to claim long-term profits in live betting is to rely on a specific betting strategy. There are plenty of them for you to choose, from those addressing to risk-averse punters, to more conservative and speculative ones. There are almost as many strategies as there are people using them. Whatever the strategy, the top priority of a punter should be not to maximize the profit, but to minimize potential losses.