Corner betting tends to be one of the most misunderstood betting markets. For the vast majority of punters the number of corners is not so stable to predict as the winner or the total number of goals in a match, so they demoted the market to the “fun bet” level. In other words, they believe that the corners number is so random, that has little to do with searching and analyzing to be considered a fertile field for serious betting.
That’s totally wrong. In fact, corner betting is one of the most interesting betting markets to invest, in order to gain long-term profit. And there are two main reasons for this:
- Corner betting odds are derived mainly by numbers (totals, average etc.) and scratch out their personal percept about the outcome. So, it’s easier for a smart punter to “disagree” with raw numbers and find a lot of valuable bets.
- The money placed on corner bets stands for a tiny percentage of total money. Thus, bookmakers don’t pay so much attention to “correct” the odds, as they don’t feel they are in danger of losing a fortune. Even the greater sums on corner betting are not detected easily by the “bet radars”.
Best Pre-match corner betting strategies
It’s true that the vast majority of punters places live bets when it comes to corners. But still, there are some profitable corner betting strategies when choosing to bet pre-match. These are the best two:
First half corners
Usually online bookmakers don’t pay much attention to first-half lines. They just count an over/under market line for the whole match (i.e. over/under 9,5 corners) and just divide it into two, subtracting one corner most of the times (i.e. over/under 4,5 corners). Supposing that in several leagues (like the Dutch Eredivisie or the German Bundesliga) there’s an ascending number of corners even from the first minutes, it’s really worthy to bet on the over 4,5 corners before halftime.
Wrong lines on specific teams
This is a strategy, focusing on the teams rather than the matches. You just have to pick some teams, usually the favorites on every league who are desperate to win every match, especially at home. Then you focus on their attitude: They don’t have to be tired after a midweek international or important domestic cup tie. They have to be fully focused on getting maximum points of the game (even better when they’ve lost points at their previous match). So, you’re just sure they’re giving 100% potential during most of the 90 minutes, not just to secure victory, but to score as many goals as possible.
Tips to look for
Goalkeepers: Their ability to block the ball under every circumstance or just punch it away is a crucial factor for the total number of corners. In order to win at corner betting, watch their attitude during the match when it comes to long passes, volleys or fierce shots. Watch what they do during a corner kick, do they go aggressively to the ball or just wait stacked at their goal line?
Central defenders: Gifted players, who are tall and strong enough to win all body challenges in the box, but can also pass and dribble accurately, are rare in modern football. Watch for less-skilled players, who have in mind primarily to drive away the ball at any cost. They’re going to allow much more corner kicks during a match.
Bad Weather (rain, snow etc.): There’s some contradiction whether heavy rain or snow could be a sign for more or less corners. Some insist that due to the slippery terrain, goalkeepers and defenders don’t think twice before giving a corner, to prevent worse situations for their team. Others claim that due to this fear (and given that offensive players have the same difficulty to create chances) they become extremely careful not to allow many set pieces around their goal. I support the first version.
Injuries/suspensions: Watch out for specific absences, who can affect crucially the average number of corners a team has in a match. A change of the starting goalkeeper, a fast striker who likes to play on the line and usually invades the box, or a smart midfielder, capable of making accurate lateral passes are important factors of a match.
Allegations of “fixed” results: I usually avoid even mentioning “fixed” matches, but let’s face it. In some leagues, this is a reality. You might have heard that the exact number of corner kicks is easier to be fixed than the final result or the number of goals, as this number does not affect crucially any win/lose scenario. Unfortunately, you’ll bump into some unknown “friends”, eager to provide you with information about “free money” from corner kicks, I strongly advise you to avoid them. But if you’re watching a football match and you observe a suspicious urge of defenders to give away corners, don’t hesitate to bet. After all, it’s your decision.
Shots per game: This is a number found in many football statistics websites, mainly from the top leagues. The bigger the number of shots per game, the greater the chance of getting more corner kicks. Look for the team who’re away of the average numbers, bookmakers still pay more attention to the league’s average number to offer odds.
In-play corner betting strategy
One of the best in-play corner betting strategies after 85 min. is taking the Asian over 1 corners. With this bet, you get your money back if just one corner is given away and you win after two or more corners. Watch out for games where one team (the favorite) is pushing for a late winner or a late equalizer. Odds for this bet start from 1.80-1.90 in 85 min. and ascending as time passes.
A variable of this in play corner betting strategy is on the over 0,5 corners at the dying moments of a match. This bet is open for 1-2 minutes only, usually after 88 min. and is still alive during the injury time. But most bookmakers don’t leave it open till the end. You can find it at around 1.80-1.90 odds.
When there are many corners in the first half, usually bookmakers at least double the exact number to set the line for the whole match. For example, when there are 7 corners till halftime, the over/under line will stand at least to 14,5 corner kicks. Taking the under is by default a valuable choice, depending of course on the current score.
Another profitable corner betting strategy is insisting on the starting line. When the pre-match over/under corners line is 10,5 and till the halftime, there are only three corners marked, the odds on the over 9,5 corners are boosted and is really worthy to take. Given the fact, of course, that the match is still claimed by both teams.
When at halftime there’s a clear score (2-0, 3-0) for the favorite, taking the under line is the most logical scenario. Especially if the over/under line is, as always, doubling the number of corners of the first half. For example, if there are four corners at the first half and the over/under line is 9,5 kicks, value hides to the under choice, supposing that the favorite team will not push the match to the limit.
Corner kicks in specific leagues
- Italian Serie A doesn’t seem like a league you can win at corner betting. Most of the teams are focused on the defense to grab a valuable result and even the powerhouse teams don’t attack when they reach a comfortable score.
- On the contrary, some attacking-minded leagues as the German Bundesliga or the Dutch Eredivisie have more corners per match, as the teams tend to score more goals and keep on attacking till the end, regardless of the current score.
- Latin American Leagues, especially Brazil and Colombia, have many more corners than European leagues, due to talented lateral strikers.
- Watch for over lines in African Championships (especially South Africa) or international competitions in Africa for clubs and national teams. In general, African goalkeepers are less stable than their European counterparts.
- Many Eastern European leagues tend to have less corners than the Western European ones. The match tempo is much slower than in Western Europe, there aren’t so many shots on goal, especially during the winter months.
Can you win at corner kick betting?
As you can see, there are many ways to make a profit through corner betting. This betting market doesn’t depend on luck, but on betting discipline, accuracy, analysis and momentum. There are specific teams who count mainly on set pieces to score, others with excellent sideline strikers, leagues which produce a lot of corners. All you have to do is analyze and place your bets.