Odds movement: How to profit from odds changes

You may have noticed changes, either up or down, when looking for the highest odds among your favorite bookmakers. That happens due to various reasons, such as key players’ injuries, a high betting volume or because you chose a game suspected of being fixed. The odds movement is a crucial process based on the changes in market prices. Bettors worldwide see a specific outcome potentially profitable and follow it, thus creating betting trends.

Experienced players are always informed about the latest odds differentiations and build their strategy on their ups and downs. The ultimate target is to take advantage of odds changes. You have to be in a position to evaluate if the fluctuations are justified. It’s a complicated process, which is profitable depending on where you place your bet. Read on to understand how to read odds movement and build a successful strategy while they change.

How to read odds movement

Betting on politicsIf you have experience betting online, you should know that the odds on one selection can alter instantly. Even the slightest changes are critical for both single and ACCA betting. So, the decision that you should make is if the updated odds have value or not. Let’s take an example from the Austrian Erste Liga match between Austria Wien II and Wacker Innsbruck. The visiting team was the initial favorite, but before kick-off, Wacker’s odds dropped from 1.85 to 1.60. On the other hand, Austria Wien II’s initial prices increased from 3.50 to 4.25 and the draw’s odds from 3.50 to 3.90. So, if you bet on Wacker at 1.85 odds, you should decide if this 29,41% drop decreases your wager’s value. That’s a typical odds movement trend, where a bettor must decide where the value is and how to profit from it.

Why do odds change

Before you comprehend the odds changes, you should first realize that the offered prices do not reflect the genuine chances of a pick happening. The odds are an expression for the implied probability, not the true probability of an outcome. Even the sharp online betting sites have a different approach for true odds. So, an experienced bettor should find the mistake and chase profit. Concisely, the odds do not change because bookmakers want to infuse the players. They make money from the VIG and on the sum of bets, regardless of the result. Their only target is to balance the same amount of money and their risk on all possible outcomes of a market. So, they don’t care about the result of a football match, for example.

Several factors affect the prices of a market in a sporting event. Let’s take an example of an English Premier League football match. The starting lineup or an injury of a top-rated player are reasons that can define the probabilities of each market’s result. The high-level competition creates self-confidence for bettors, who consider that they have a piece of deep knowledge about all the teams. So, it’s not random that these matches have higher liquidity. Money determines the price movement; odds changes are an instantly related trend to the total amount of wagers on specific markets.

How to build an odds movement strategy on Expected Value

When you decide to follow a betting pattern on dropping odds or odds movement, it’s not enough to just evaluate the apparent parameters for these trends. The new information about a player’s injury, the market confidence that drives liquidity and the total amount of money wagered is respectable factors. But in most cases, the maths tell the truth about the value of a probable pick.

Combining the Expected Value of a pick based on moving odds should be a piece of essential evidence of your strategy. That type of analysis will show you the way to follow or not odds changes. You can cumulate the EV of your pick following the equation above:

EV = {Winning Probability x Clear Profit} - {Losing Probability x Losing Stake}

Let’s take the example above and find out if this 29,41% drop to 1.60 odds is a trend that can be profitable on a long-term basis with a €10 starting stake.

Wacker to WIN dropping odds Winning probability Clear Profit Losing probability* Expected Value**
1.60 62,5% €6 49,1% -1.16

*Draw 25,6% + Austria Wien II 23,5% - **{62.5/100 x €6} - {49.1/100 x €10} = 3.75 - 4.91 = -1.16

red arrowThis number refers to a negative Expected Value which means that you will lose €1,16 on average for every €10 in this specific wager. You may win ten consecutive bets and then lose five in a row, but you shouldn’t forget that all discussion refers to an average. For example, if you bet 100 times, the most likely will be to lose €116 (i.e., 100 x 1.16). So, it’s not a profitable strategy to bet at prices that lost value after an odds movement.

What does “accept all odds movement” mean

Many leading bookmakers still offer the option to “accept all odds movement” during bet placement. This service is different from the downwards odds movement. This trend indicates a bettor’s agreement to accept dropping odds between picking a selection and placing it. Tapping the “accept all odds movement” button means you agree with all differentiations, whether they are referring to lower or higher odds. If you don’t use this automated option, you need to approve or edit your bet if anything changes manually.

When you use to place bets closer to the match start, it’s a critical decision. The prices tend to change more as the kick-off approaches. It’s the appropriate time for the bookmakers to adjust the odds. Following that, they create a profitable financial balance, secure their commission, and attract equal action on every possible outcome.

Should I accept all odds movement?

Payoneer spyWhen you see notable odds changes, you should find the reasons why that happened. If you believe there is value, then you should accordingly place your bet. The first step to achieve this is to evaluate all the new information. Every bit of data, such as numbers, injuries, suspensions, latest news and odds changes, can guide you into making a right or wrong decision, depending entirely on how you choose to interpret them. Secondly, you should calculate every game’s statistical chances and set the odds by considering the probabilities and public opinion. That is a complicated process that needs time and knowledge. So, when creating your bet, it’s better to follow all these steps before you tap the “place” button.

If you plan to follow a betting pattern on moving odds, it is highly recommended to register and open betting accounts with several online betting sites to increase the range of choices. Some online bookmakers adοpt a model based on new bettors attracting them with heavy bonuses. They try to increase sales growth, their odds are not competitive enough and display slow adjustment to the markets’ changes. On the other hand, sharp bookies focus on their final profit, so they offer higher odds attracting professional bettors and traders.

Best Odds Betting Sites

Here you can check the bookmakers with the highest odds. Find the most reputable online betting sites that offer the best odds in an extensive range of sports and markets in the list below.

Q: How do wagers move odds in an exchange market?

The elite of sharp bettors identify values (e.g., overpriced odds) at exchange markets, so their bets go odds closer to their true probability and affect the odds movement on these occasions.

Q: Why do bookmakers choose to freeze odds?

When online betting sites start not accepting a bet on a specific market, they realize that the initial odds were wrong and trying to adapt them in order to keep their financial balance. That happens mostly in minor league games where all information isn’t so accurate.

Q: Can a bettor automatically accept higher odds?

Tapping the “accept all odds movement” button means that a bettor, when placing his bet, accepts both “up” and “down” moving odds. So, the options are two; he can automatically agree with probable odds changes or place the bet manually, checking all differentiations.

Q: What does ‘‘accept downwards odds movement’’ mean?

This bettors’ decision means that they agree to accept dropping odds when they complete their betslip, and they are ready to tap the “place” button.

Q: Is the “accept all odds movement” option available only for in-play betting?

No, this option is offered both for pre-match and in-play betting. All the odds may change before the kick-off of a football match, for example. Although, ante-post betting isn’t clearly connected with the “accept all odds movement” option.

Q: Can you build an odds movement strategy based on inside information?

The inside information parameter can affect the odds movement only in minor league games where the money wage is typically low. So, if someone shares this type of information and a selection receives a higher number of bets, this situation may affect the odds. Anyhow, this betting strategy isn’t reliable at all.

Q: Do bookmakers manipulate the odds using goals or point handicaps?

That’s the main reason that a bettor shouldn’t consider any odds movement based on spreads. A point or a goal spread attracts bets on both possible outcomes, so the bookmaker secures commission without the need to move odds.

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