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Most profitable trading strategies on Betfair

Betfair seems like the top destination for professional punters and traders since they’re well established as the best betting exchange in the entire industry. The reasons are simple: High odds, a wide variety of bets, high liquidity in combination, steadiness and credibility.

But, what is the fact that distinguishes the top Betfair traders from an average bettor? Nothing more than a few extremely profitable Betfair trading strategies. Let’s take a look at the most efficient.

Betfair Football betting strategies

Lay the draw/back score draw

Betfair-Football-StrategiesThis Betfair strategy has become so popular that it nowadays manages to affect odds movements on many online bookmakers. Its popularity results from pure effectiveness and simplicity, as you basically place your bet and do not have to be alert during the rest of the match.

Once again, you can place two bets on the same match to profit from this exchange strategy. The starting bet is to lay the draw, meaning that it is required that one team wins the tie. If a team is up ahead with two or three goals, you should be fine in most cases. However, what happens if a team is only one goal ahead with less than 15 minutes remaining before the final whistle?

It’s now time to also back the draw. No, we’re not saying you should place a draw bet just to cover your losses. Your best option is to back the current score (usually offered around 6.50, in some cases exceeding 10.00, depending on the opponent’s strength). If you want to limit your risk even further, you could also back other exact score draw results. However, this will surely diminish your profit in the long run. You can check a more detailed analysis of the lay the draw strategy on our previous betting guide.

BTTS, Over 2,5 and draw scores

This is a betting exchange strategy where you take advantage of the multiple bets on the same match, trying to get a nearly 50% profit of your initial stake. All you have to do is try to focus on games where there’s a strong possibility of both teams to score and eventually, there’s at least a third goal, which will confirm both your main backing selections. Lookup for matches where both the BTTS (Both Teams To Score) and over 2,5 goal odds are over 1.80.

How is this Betfair strategy built? Back the BTTS “Yes” option with 42% of your stake (if your total amount is €100, you’ll stake €42 if your amount is €50, you’ll risk €21,5 etc.) and the “Over 2,5 goals” options with another 42%. In addition, use 8% of your stake to cover the 0-0 correct score (odds should be over 11.00) and another 8% of your stake at the 1-1 option.

You lose your entire stake only in case of a 1-0, 2-0 win of either team. If one of two scores three or more goals, you lose only about 25% of your stake. In the case of both teams score at least once (as you’ve also backed the 1-1 draw), you’ll have at least a profit of 48,9% (even higher if the initial odds on BTTS or over 2,5 goals are higher than 1.80). You get money even if there's a goalless draw (about 25% profit). Here’s a table explaining how the betting exchange strategy works.


Score BTTS (42%) OVER 2,5(42%) 0-0 CS(8%) 1-1 CS(8%) OVERALL
0-0 L L W L W25%
1-0 / 0-1 L L L L L100%
1-1 W L L W W50%
2-0 /0-2 L L L L L100%
2-1 W W L L W50%
2-2 W W L L W50%
3-0 L W L L L25%
3-1 W W L L W50%
3-2 W W L L W50%
3-3 W W L L W50%
4-0 L W L L L25%
4-1 W W L L W50%
4-2 W W L L W50%
4-3 W W L L W50%
4-4 W W L L W50%

As you can see, in 10 of 15 different scores, you win about 50% of your stake. In one case (0-0 draw), you win about 25%. In the other two, you lose 25% of your stake, and in only two, you lose the entire stake.

Scalping

This soccer trading strategy was initially developed as one of the best Betfair trading strategies in horse racing but has been implemented in other sports during the last 5 years. The reasoning behind this strategy is relatively simple. You surely have noticed that most odds changes occur a few minutes before the event's start, especially if this event is important and highly anticipated.

Scalping can be described as a way of grinding, as your profit margins tend to be nearly certain but very small. For example, if you back a home win at 2.40 odds and sell the same bet at 2.30 odds, you will have secured a profit in a short time, in many cases in less than five minutes. If you had placed €200 at 2.40 odds and sold it at 2.30 odds a couple of minutes later, you’ll have netted a €20 profit in no time.

You’ve got to be careful, though. This kind of football trading strategy requires a lot of self-control and discipline to not diffuse your bankroll on more than a few selected bets. Many rookie punters have tried scalping almost every match they can get their hands on with disastrous results.

Back Over 2,5 and three correct scores

This is one of the simplest (thus, most popular) strategies: You just have to find matches where there’s a clear favorite to win (having pre-match odds about 1.40-1.70) and the over 2,5 goal odds should be more than 1.80. You’ll have no such difficulty finding these odds at Betfair, as more than half of matches with firm favorites still don't have low odds on over 2,5 goals. What do you have to do?

Back the over 2,5 goals option. This is your main stake. To be more secure about not losing your stake, you could also back some of the “under 2,5 goals” correct scores (six in all – 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 0-2). This strategy recommends you pick the first three correct scores, providing that the favorite team will find the opponents’ net. You could toggle your stakes in such a way to green up in every option or else get your money back in case of a correct score and win only if there are three goals or more.

You lose if there’s no favorite goal, which is unlikely in such matches. To make this simpler, when the favorite scores even once, you lock your winnings, as you cover all the “under 2,5” variations containing scoring from the home team (1-0, 2-0, 1-1).

Under 2.5 Goals/First Goal

This is a slightly more complex Betfair betting strategy, as you have to place two bets and keep an eye on the accurate match time. Your first bet should be backing a goal to be scored during 0-10 min. (or 0-15 min. on some online bookmakers) and the second backing the Under 2.5 Goals market at an amount equal to ten times your first bet. (ie. €10 on First Goal, €100 on Under 2.5 goals).

This way, you get a double-winning option. If any team scores in the first minutes, you claim your winnings as in most matches the 0-10 min. The option is offered on higher than 10.00 odds. If no team scores in the first 10 (or 15) minutes, you lose your first bet, but seeing that you laid the Under 2.5 goals bet, the odds in most cases will have dropped significantly enough to cover the lost stake and offer a profit.

There is an obvious danger to this strategy: Losing the First Goal bet without managing to lay the Under 2.5 Goals bet on time. You must lay your under bet immediately after placing your first bet, or you might risk losing both bets and seriously harm your bankroll. There’s no reason to get greedy if you see the Under 2.5 goals' odds rise during in-play.

Cash out betting strategy

Another popular grinding strategy was the forerunner to the cash-out option found today on almost every traditional bookie. You basically place a bet that is likely to be confirmed at some point during the match and wait for the right moment to cash out on your stake. The cool thing about this strategy is that you are not limited to match winners or total goals.

The key to this strategy is keeping your cool and splitting your bankroll into various small bets to maximize your chances of winning. If you back an underdog that manages to score the first goal, it’s time to make a serious decision: Will you stick to your bet for a little bit more in the hope of more significant profit, or will you sell it immediately and eliminate the risk?

Professional traders would tell you that this is the edge that separates gamblers from traders. A gambler would probably delay selling his bet as he would feel that doing so would cheat him from gaining more money. A trader would be more composed and less greedy and sell his bet when the profit meets his pre-defined criteria.

Tennis betting strategies

Lay the server strategy on tennis

Before following this strategy, it’s important to be well-knowledged about tennis, especially about both players' strengths and weaknesses. It’s more often utilized in matches with equal strength opponents and especially in women’s games. In that case, online bookmakers tend to give a slight advantage to the player who is serving, as he (or she) has a statistically higher chance of winning the specific game.

Luckily for us, stats tell a different story. In women’s games, the winning-losing percentage of the server is close to 50%. This means that if you lay a server (or back the player who’s not serving to win the said game), you require the above stat to be confirmed.

Once again, we insist on using this trading tennis strategy only in matches where the players are of similar strength. Many traders are actually selling a lay bet if the receiver gets a two or three-point advantage (0-30, 15-40 or 0-40), as the winning odds of the server now much higher. Once again, this is a matter of setting your profit limits.

Under games at the second set

Are there any good M-Pesa alternativesThis is a Betfair strategy based on vast statistics research on many tennis tournaments, regarding matches with a strong pre-game favorite. Pick games with more than 10.5 games in the first set (6-4, 7-5, tie break), especially if the favorite manages to win it eventually.

Usually, the underdog player gives 100% to upset the big name in the first set, but after the defeat feels disappointed and loses confidence. Most of the time, the favorite has a much more relaxed 2nd set. The strategy could also be formed if the favorite has lost the first set, but it’s riskier.

Golf betting strategies at Betfair

Easy and Tough holes in Golf

Before exercising this Betfair gold betting strategy, you have to do a little homework first, at least in major golf tournaments, where there is plenty of information about the courses. Pick fields that have “easy” and “tough” holes (you’ll recognize them easily by the par) and get ready to place your bets at the right moment. It’s crucial. Usually, an 18-hole golf course has a series of holes (usually two or three) which are not so difficult for experienced players.

The whole idea is backing a favorite who didn’t start the course well but is ready for a strong comeback during this “easy” ride. If an experienced golfer succeeds in a birdie even in one hole, his overall win odds drop significantly. If he birdies two or more consecutively (something not rare for class players), his odds return to the standard pre-course levels, so you could back him on, let’s say, 8.00 or even 10.00 overall win and lay him on 2.50-3.00, making at least a 300% profit of your initial stake.

Horse racing betting strategies

Covering 6 out of 10 horses

It would help if you remembered that a typical horse race is including more than eight different horses, so the odds offered by the bookies are scattered among different favorites. It’s too risky picking just one winner in every race (as in a 10-horse race, you have theoretically only 10% of winning, so the best strategy is covering more favorites and increasing your winning chances.

Usually, in a 10-horse race, there are about 5-6 horses offered below 11.00 odds (10/1 UK type). According to three-year extensive research among all horse races offered at Betfair, if you cover all of them with the respective amount, you have a vast 94.34% winning percentage. The total profit you gain varies from 6% to 8% of your total amount in every race, so in the long term, you’re successful.


Horse Odds Ammount ($)
Stella 4.00 26.75
Girion 4.90 21.83
Stolkeber 5.60 19.10
Aristomenes 9.00 11.90
Archibald 10.00 10.70
Cherisha 11.00 9.72
Τhunder 25.00 -
Celtic Power 50.00 -
Solar 101.00 -
Paris Throw 151.00 -
Total 100.00

If you divide your total amount of $100 respectively on the six horses with the lower odds, you get a 7% profit in case of a win.

Conclusion

betting with M-pesavvvvvvvvvvvvvvvWe’ve come up with some ideas about how to use the Betfair exchange website for your own good. The primary purpose of this article is to encourage you to experiment furthermore with Betfair strategies. I prefer the more complex strategies, such as “BTTS, Over 2,5 and Draw Scores”.

The reason is simple: It’s difficult to manipulate the odds, so you get more or less the same amount in every winning bet. Of course, there should be many more which work really well and provide a steady profit. The most successful Betfair traders started this way, inventing a strategy that works and follow it with discipline.

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When it was established, back in 2000, the Betfair betting exchange revolutionized online gambling. It gave bettors the ability to compete against each other based on a poker or stock exchange model. Players can bet with very high limits and also cover their wagers with more fair conditions compared to the Cash Out feature that traditional bookmakers offer. Professional bettors can use the exchange as a tool to follow the market trends and sell their bets. The high liquidity almost guarantees that your bets will be traded. Betfair is up-to-date with the latest features, like Bet Builder and Request a Bet, and added a fixed-odds section, too. However, the sportsbook payout is below par. Although the market depth in the exchange is huge, it is not as it once was. The liquidity of less popular sports and leagues has decreased dramatically due to the inability of some countries to regulate the betting exchanges, which forced Betfair to exit strategic markets. Moreover, the commission fees are relatively steep compared to other exchanges, such as Matchbook or Smarkets. There are additional charges if you are a very successful trader. Overall, if you are looking to bet on the exchange, then Betfair is unrivaled to any other company.

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