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Most profitable trading strategies on Betfair

Betfair seems like the top destination for professional punters and traders, since they’re well established as the best betting exchange in the entire industry. The reasons are simple: High odds, a wide variety of bets, high liquidity in combination, steadiness and credibility. But, what is the fact that distinguishes the top Betfair traders from an average bettor? Nothing more than a few extremely profitable Betfair trading strategies. Let’s take a look at the most efficient.

Betfair Football betting strategies

Lay the draw/back score draw

Betfair-Football-StrategiesThis Betfair strategy has become so popular that it nowadays manages to affect odds movements on a large number of online bookmakers. Its popularity is a result of pure effectiveness and simplicity, as you basically place your bet and do not have to be alert during the rest of the match.

Once again you can place two bets on the same match to gain a profit from this exchange strategy. The starting bet is to lay the draw, meaning that it is required that one team wins the tie. If a team is up ahead two or three goals, in most cases you should be fine. However, what happens if a team is only one goal ahead with less than 15 minutes remaining before the final whistle?

It’s now time to also back the draw. No, we’re not saying you should place a draw bet just to cover your losses. Your best option is to back the current score (usually offered around 6.50, in some cases exceeding 10.00, depending on the opponent’s strength). If you want to limit your risk even further, you could also back other exact score draw results, however, this will surely diminish your profit in the long run. You can check a more detailed analysis of the lay the draw strategy on our previous betting guide.

BTTS, Over 2,5 and draw scores

This is a betting exchange strategy where you take advantage of the multiple bets on the same match, trying to get a nearly 50% profit of your initial stake. All you have to do is try to focus on matches where there’s a strong possibility of both teams to score and eventually there’s at least a third goal, which will confirm both your main backing selections. Look up for matches where both the BTTS (Both Teams To Score) and over 2,5 goals odds are over than 1.80.

How is this Betfair strategy built? Back the BTTS “Yes” option with 42% of your stake (if your total amount is €100 you’ll stake €42, if your amount is €50 you’ll stake €21,5 etc.) and the “Over 2,5 goals” options with another 42%. In addition, use 8% of your stake to cover the 0-0 correct score (odds should be over 11.00) and another 8% of your stake at the 1-1 option.

You lose your entire stake only in case of a 1-0, 2-0 win of either team. If one of two scores three or more goals you lose only about 25% of your stake. In the case of both teams score at least once (as you’ve backed also the 1-1 draw) you’ll have at least a profit of 48,9% (even higher if the initial odds on BTTS or over 2,5 goals are higher than 1.80). You get money even if there's a goalless draw (about 25% profit). Here’s a table explaining how the betting exchange strategy works.


Score BTTS (42%) OVER 2,5(42%) 0-0 CS(8%) 1-1 CS(8%) OVERALL
0-0 L L W L W25%
1-0 / 0-1 L L L L L100%
1-1 W L L W W50%
2-0 /0-2 L L L L L100%
2-1 W W L L W50%
2-2 W W L L W50%
3-0 L W L L W25%
3-1 W W L L W50%
3-2 W W L L W50%
3-3 W W L L W50%
4-0 L W L L W25%
4-1 W W L L W50%
4-2 W W L L W50%
4-3 W W L L W50%
4-4 W W L L W50%

As you can see, in 10 of 15 different scores you win about 50% of your stake. In one case (0-0 draw) you win about 25%, in the other two you lose 25% of your stake and in only two you lose the entire stake.

Scalping

This soccer trading strategy was originally developed as one of the best Betfair trading strategies in horse racing, but has been implemented in other sports as well during the last 5 years. The reasoning behind this strategy is rather simple. You surely have noticed that most odds changes take place a few minutes before the start of the event, especially if this event is important and highly anticipated.

Scalping can be described as a way of grinding, as your profit margins tend to be nearly certain but very small. For example, if you back a home win at 2.40 odds and sell the same bet at 2.30 odds, you will have secured a profit in a very short time, in many cases in less than five minutes. If you had placed €200 at 2.40 odds and sold it at 2.30 odds a couple of minutes later, you’ll have netted a €20 profit in no time.

You’ve got to be careful, though. This kind of football trading strategy requires a lot of self-control and discipline in order to not diffuse your bankroll on more than a few selected number of bets. Many rookie punters have tried scalping almost every match they can get their hands on with disastrous results.

Back Over 2,5 and three correct scores

This is one of the simplest (thus, most popular) strategies: You just have to find matches where there’s a clear favorite to win (having pre-match odds about 1.40-1.70) and the over 2,5 goal odds should be more than 1.80. You’ll have no such difficulty finding these odds at Betfair, as more than half matches with strong favorites still don't have low odds on over 2,5 goals.

What do you have to do? Back the over 2,5 goals option, this is your main stake. To be more secure about not losing your stake you could also back some of the “under 2,5 goals” correct scores (which are six in all – 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 0-2). This strategy recommends you to pick the first three correct scores, providing that the favorite team will find the opponents’ net. You could toggle your stakes in such a way to green up in every option or else get your money back in case of a correct score and win only if there are three goals or more. You lose if there’s no favorite goal, which is unlikely in such matches.

To make this simpler, when the favorite scores even once, you lock your winnings, as you cover all the “under 2,5” variations containing scoring from the home team (1-0, 2-0, 1-1).

Under 2.5 Goals/First Goal

This is a slightly more complex Betfair betting strategy, as you have to place two bets and keep an eye on the accurate match time. Your first bet should be backing a goal to be scored during 0-10 min. (or 0-15 min. on some online bookmakers) and the second backing the Under 2.5 Goals market at an amount equal to ten times your first bet. (ie. €10 on First Goal, €100 on Under 2.5 goals).

This way you get a double-winning option. In case any team scores in the first minutes, you claim your winnings as in most matches the 0-10 min. option is offered on higher than 10.00 odds. If no team scores in the first 10 (or 15) minutes, you lose your first bet, but seeing that you laid the Under 2.5 goals bet, the odds in most cases will have dropped significantly enough to cover the lost stake and offer a profit.

There is an obvious danger to this strategy: Losing the First Goal bet without managing to lay the Under 2.5 Goals bet on time. It is imperative that you lay your under bet immediately after placing your first bet or you might risk losing both bets and seriously harm your bankroll. There’s no reason to get greedy if you see the Under 2.5 goals odds rise during in- play.

Cash out betting strategy

Another popular grinding strategy, that was the forerunner to the cash-out option found today on almost every traditional bookie. You basically place a bet that is likely to be confirmed at some point during the match and wait for the right moment to cash out on your stake. The cool thing about this strategy is that you are not limited to match winners or total goals.

The key to this strategy is to keep your cool and split your bankroll into various small bets in order to maximize your chances of winning. If you back an underdog that manages to score the first goal, it’s time to make a serious decision: Will you stick to your bet for a little bit more at the hope of larger profit or will you sell it immediately and eliminate the risk? Professional traders would tell you that this is the edge that separates gamblers from traders. A gambler would probably delay selling his bet as he would feel that doing so would cheat him from gaining more money. A trader would be more composed and less greedy and would sell his bet at the moment the profit meets his pre-defined criteria.

Tennis betting strategies

Lay the server strategy on tennis

Before following this strategy it’s important to be well-knowledged about tennis, and especially about the strengths and weaknesses of both players. It’s more often utilized in matches with equal strength opponents and especially in women’s games. In that case, online bookmakers tend to give a small advantage to the player who is serving, as he (or she) has a statistically higher chance of winning the specific game.

Luckily for us, stats tell a different story. In women’s games, the winning-losing percentage of the server is close to 50%. This means that if you lay a server (or back the player who’s not serving to win said game) you simply require the above stat to be confirmed.

Once again we insist on using this trading tennis strategy only in matches where the players are of similar strength. Many traders are actually selling a lay bet in case the receiver gets a two or three point advantage (0-30, 15-40 or 0-40), as the winning odds of the server now much higher. Once again, this is a matter of setting your own profit limits.

Under games at second set

This is a Betfair strategy based on a vast statistics research on many tennis tournaments, regarding matches where there’s a strong pre-game favorite. Pick games which had more than 10.5 games in the first set (6-4, 7-5, tie break), especially if the favorite manage to eventually win it. Usually the underdog player gives 100% to upset the big name in the first set, but after the defeat feels disappointed and loses confidence. Most of the time the favorite has a much more relaxed 2nd set. The strategy could be also formed if the favorite has lost the first set, but it’s riskier.

Golf betting strategies at Betfair

Easy and Tough holes in Golf

Before exercising this Betfair gold betting strategy you have to do a little homework first, at least in major golf tournaments, where there is plenty of information about the courses. Pick fields which have “easy” and “tough” holes (you’ll recognize them easily by the par) and get ready to place your bets the right moment, it’s crucial.

Usually an 18-hole golf course has a series of holes (usually two or three) which are not so difficult for experienced players. The whole idea is backing a favorite who didn’t start the course well, but is ready for a strong comeback during this “easy” ride. If an experienced golfer succeeds a birdie even in one hole, his overall win odds drop significantly. If he birdies two or more consecutively (something not rare for class players) his odds return to the standard pre-course levels, so you could back him on, let’s say, 8.00 or even 10.00 overall win and lay him on 2.50-3.00, making at least a 300% profit of your initial stake.

Horse racing betting strategies

Covering 6 out of 10 horses

You should remember that a typical horse race is including more than eight different horses, so the odds offered by the bookies are scattered among different favorites. It’s too risky picking just one winner in every race (as in a 10-horse race you have theoretically only 10% of winning, so the best strategy is covering more favorites and increasing you winning chances.

Usually in a 10-horse race there are about 5-6 horses offered below 11.00 odds (10/1 UK type). According to a three-year vast research among all horse races offered at Betfair, if you cover all of them with the respective amount, you have a tremendous 94.34% winning percentage. The total profit you gain varies from 6% to 8% of your total amount in every race, so in the long term you’re successful.


Horse Odds Ammount ($)
Stella 4.00 26.75
Girion 4.90 21.83
Stolkeber 5.60 19.10
Aristomenes 9.00 11.90
Archibald 10.00 10.70
Cherisha 11.00 9.72
Τhunder 25.00 -
Celtic Power 50.00 -
Solar 101.00 -
Paris Throw 151.00 -
Total 100.00

If you divide your total amount of $100 respectively on the six horses with the lower odds, you get a 7% profit in case of a win.

Conclusion

We’ve come up with some ideas about how to use the Berfair exchange website for your own good. The main purpose of this article is to encourage you to experiment furthermore with Betfair strategies.

I prefer the more complex strategies, such as “BTTS, Over 2,5 and Draw Scores”. The reason is simple: It’s difficult to manipulate the odds, so you get more or less the same amount in every winning bet.

Of course there should be many more which work really well and provide a steady profit. The most successful Betfair traders started this way, inventing a strategy that works and follow it with discipline.

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BOOK SPY BONUS REVIEW

If you make yourself familiar with every pink and blue box, you’ll realize why Betfair is a completely different story from any other traditional bookie. The most famous betting exchange operator, Betfair has been in the industry since 1999 and have been the pioneers of a great number of services that almost all reliable bookies offer today. These include live streaming, cash out and many more. As a betting exchange they allow every bettor to act like a bookie himself and lay bets instead of only backing them. However their bonus policy is slim and perhaps could see an impovement.

 

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